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Sri Lanka tour of Pakistan · 2026/27 · Men
9 Oct 2026 · T20
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 25%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 35% during the match (Pakistan: 65% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahibzada Farhancaught · Sahan Arachchige · Nuwan Thushara 10 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Sahan Arachchige · b Nuwan Thushara | 89 | 53 | 10 | 4 | 167.92 |
 Fakhar Zamancaught · Kusal Mendis · Eshan Malinga4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Eshan Malinga | 21 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 161.54 |
| Maaz Sadaqatlbw · Mahesh Theekshana 4 fours · 3 sixes | lbw · b Mahesh Theekshana | 50 | 29 | 4 | 3 | 172.41 |
| Hassan Nawazcaught · Kusal Mendis · Dushmantha Chameera 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Dushmantha Chameera | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Saim Ayubbowled · Mahesh Theekshana 1 fours · 0 sixes |
| bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana |
| 8 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 160.00 |
| Khawaja Nafaynot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 12* | 7 | 0 | 1 | 171.43 |
|---|
 Shadab Khancaught · Nuwan Thushara · Eshan Malinga0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nuwan Thushara · b Eshan Malinga | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Mohammad Imrannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuwan Thushara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 10.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 13.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 8.61 | 0 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 8.67 | 1 | 0 |
1-54 (Fakhar Zaman, 5.1) · 2-146 (Maaz Sadaqat, 13.5) · 3-147 (Hassan Nawaz, 14.1) · 4-156 (Saim Ayub, 15.1) · 5-179 (Sahibzada Farhan, 17.5) · 6-180 (Shadab Khan, 18.2)
Recorded target: 183 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 16 | 22/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 35/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 38/0 |
| 5 | 16 | 54/0 |
| 6 | 16 | 70/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 75/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 82/1 |
| 9 | 12 | 94/1 |
| 10 | 10 | 104/1 |
| 11 | 11 | 115/1 |
| 12 | 7 | 122/1 |
| 13 | 9 | 131/1 |
| 14 | 16 | 147/2 |
| 15 | 9 | 156/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 159/4 |
| 17 | 6 | 165/4 |
| 18 | 14 | 179/5 |
| 19 | 8 | 187/6 |
Shadab Khan: Pakistan Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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