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Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2025 · Men
5 Jul 2025 · T20
Old Trafford · Venue photographRecorded result
Lancashire started on 64%; Lancashire batted first.
Lancashire's chances ranged from 63% to 100% during the match (Derbyshire: 0% to 37%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philip Saltcaught · Ross Whiteley · Zak Chappell1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Ross Whiteley · b Zak Chappell | 44 | 35 | 1 | 2 | 125.71 |
| Keaton Jenningscaught · Patrick Brown · Zak Chappell 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Patrick Brown · b Zak Chappell | 22 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 169.23 |
 Jos Buttlercaught and bowled · Samit Patel2 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Samit Patel | 23 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 143.75 |
| Liam Livingstonecaught · Ross Whiteley · Zak Chappell 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Ross Whiteley · b Zak Chappell | 35 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 152.17 |
| caught · Brooke Guest · b Martin Andersson |
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 16.67 |
 Ashton Turnernot out3 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 31* | 19 | 3 | 1 | 163.16 |
|---|
 Michael Jonesrun out · Aneurin Donald · Patrick Brown0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Aneurin Donald | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 122.22 |
|---|
| Jack Blatherwicknot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allah Mohammad Ghazanfar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Aitchison0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 15.50 | 1 | 2 |
 Zak Chappell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 3 | 5.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Patrick Brown0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Samit Patel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 8.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Martin Andersson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 7.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-26 (Keaton Jennings, 3.1) · 2-65 (Jos Buttler, 7.1) · 3-133 (Philip Salt, 14.1) · 4-134 (Liam Livingstone, 14.4) · 5-136 (Luke Wells, 15.5) · 6-174 (Michael Jones, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 16 | 20/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 26/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 37/1 |
| 5 | 16 | 53/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 60/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 65/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 68/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 72/2 |
| 10 | 10 | 82/2 |
| 11 | 15 | 97/2 |
| 12 | 9 | 106/2 |
| 13 | 18 | 124/2 |
| 14 | 8 | 132/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 135/4 |
| 16 | 3 | 138/5 |
| 17 | 14 | 152/5 |
| 18 | 12 | 164/5 |
| 19 | 6 | 170/5 |
| 20 | 8 | 178/6 |
Ross Whiteley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Luke Wood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Chris Green: Servite et contribuere · CC0
Aneurin Donald: Dave Morton · Public domain
Michael Jones: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Aitchison: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brooke Guest: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Samit Patel: Oliver Brown · CC BY-SA 3.0
Wayne Madsen: Parklands cobbler · CC BY 3.0
Ashton Turner: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Zak Chappell: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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