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ICC Women's T20 World Cup Europe Division 1 Qualifier · 2025 · Women
21 Aug 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Italy more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Germany started on 25%; Germany batted first.
Germany's chances ranged from 0% to 33% during the match (Italy: 67% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W Hornero-Garciacaught · EL Bartram · Ilenia Sims 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · EL Bartram · b Ilenia Sims | 14 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 60.87 |
| Karthika Vijayaraghavanbowled · S Kanankege 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b S Kanankege | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 85.71 |
| S Kolcharamcaught · EL Bartram · Ilenia Sims 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · EL Bartram · b Ilenia Sims | 35 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 116.67 |
| Christina Goughcaught · EL Bartram · Ilenia Sims 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · EL Bartram · b Ilenia Sims | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
| Rameesha Shahidbowled · EL Bartram 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b EL Bartram | 11 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 64.71 |
| not out |
| 17* |
| 13 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 130.77 |
| A Kanukuntlacaught · M Rathnayake · EL Bartram 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Rathnayake · b EL Bartram | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| V Stollenot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 12* | 21 | 1 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 7 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C Mahamalage1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| S Kanankege0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
| T Araliya0 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 7.75 | 5 | 1 |
| Ilenia Sims0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| EL Bartram0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
| D Nanayakkara0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 2 |
| ECB Moore0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-10 (Karthika Vijayaraghavan, 3.1) · 2-43 (W Hornero-Garcia, 7.3) · 3-50 (Christina Gough, 9.3) · 4-80 (S Kolcharam, 13.5) · 5-81 (Rameesha Shahid, 14.1) · 6-81 (A Kanukuntla, 14.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 9 | 24/1 |
| 6 | 12 | 36/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 42/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 44/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 49/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 50/3 |
| 11 | 9 | 59/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 61/3 |
| 13 | 14 | 75/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 80/4 |
| 15 | 1 | 81/6 |
| 16 | 5 | 86/6 |
| 17 | 3 | 89/6 |
| 18 | 12 | 101/6 |
| 19 | 2 | 103/6 |
| 20 | 10 | 113/6 |
Chloe Piparo: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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