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Photo: Ruth Sharville
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2026 · Men
10 Jul 2026 · T20
St Lawrence Ground, Canterbury · Venue photographRecorded result
Kent started on 40%; Kent batted first.
Kent's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (Surrey: 53% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tawanda Muyeyecaught · Reece Topley · Jordan Clark 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Reece Topley · b Jordan Clark | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
 Daniel Bell-Drummondcaught · Tom Lawes · Chris Jordan2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Lawes · b Chris Jordan | 17 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 106.25 |
 Zak Crawleycaught · Laurie Evans · Daniel Lawrence4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Laurie Evans · b Daniel Lawrence | 31 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 163.16 |
 Sam Billingscaught · Tom Curran · Chris Jordan0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Curran · b Chris Jordan |
| 3 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 42.86 |
 Harry Finchrun out · Sean Abbott · Sean Abbott1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sean Abbott | 18 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 90.00 |
|---|
| Ekansh Singhhit wicket · Jordan Clark 1 fours · 0 sixes | hit wicket · b Jordan Clark | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
 Grant Stewartcaught · Jason Roy · Jordan Clark0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jason Roy · b Jordan Clark | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Tom Rogersbowled · Daniel Lawrence 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Daniel Lawrence | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Jacob Lintottcaught · Jordan Clark · Reece Topley 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jordan Clark · b Reece Topley | 12 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 92.31 |
|---|
 Matt Milnesnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Hasan Mahmudcaught · Jason Roy · Sean Abbott0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jason Roy · b Sean Abbott | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Reece Topley0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Jordan Clark0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 3 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Sean Abbott0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Daniel Lawrence0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Chris Jordan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Tom Curran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Tom Lawes0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-7 (Tawanda Muyeye, 1.5) · 2-54 (Zak Crawley, 6.4) · 3-56 (Daniel Bell-Drummond, 7.2) · 4-61 (Sam Billings, 9.2) · 5-75 (Ekansh Singh, 11.2) · 6-77 (Grant Stewart, 11.4) · 7-82 (Tom Rogers, 13.0) · 8-98 (Jacob Lintott, 16.0) · 9-99 (Harry Finch, 16.2) · 10-102 (Hasan Mahmud, 17.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 18/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 25/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 35/1 |
| 6 | 13 | 48/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 56/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 57/3 |
| 9 | 4 | 61/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 63/4 |
| 11 | 11 | 74/4 |
| 12 | 3 | 77/6 |
| 13 | 5 | 82/7 |
| 14 | 5 | 87/7 |
| 15 | 2 | 89/7 |
| 16 | 9 | 98/8 |
| 17 | 4 | 102/10 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chris Jordan: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Reece Topley: Kyle Andrews · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasan Mahmud: Press Information Department · Public domain
Jason Roy: Joeyjackets · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Milnes: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Harry Finch: Dave Morton · Public domain
Grant Stewart: Blue Square Thing · CC0
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Daniel Bell-Drummond: Blue Square Thing · CC0
Tom Curran: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jordan Clark: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Billings: M.o.B 68 · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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