IndonesiaversusSouth Korea

8 Jul 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Indonesia won by 52 runs

Indonesia20.0 overs168/10 South Korea17.1 overs116/10 Udayana Cricket Ground, Bali ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Indonesia more likely to win

67%Indonesia33%South Korea

Why

In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, Indonesia won 4 and South Korea won 1
Indonesia are playing at home in Indonesia
On results in T20 internationals so far, Indonesia rate stronger than South Korea (1,321 vs 1,295 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Indonesia started on 64%; Indonesia batted first.

Indonesia’s chance of winning (%) · South Korea is the rest

Indonesia's chances ranged from 63% to 100% during the match (South Korea: 0% to 37%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.3: DJ Hawoe to DVD Madampage, DVD Madampage out. Indonesia up from 78% to 85%.
2nd inns 4.4: F Banunaek to HMHE Parsons, HMHE Parsons out. Indonesia up from 87% to 92%.
2nd inns 11.3: S Kharvi to BI Dilruksha, BI Dilruksha out. Indonesia up from 88% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Indonesia168/10 South Korea116/10

Innings 1

Indonesia

168/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Indonesia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Gede Priandanarun out · Balage Dilruksha, Sameera Maduranga · K Babu 4 fours · 1 sixes	run out · Balage Dilruksha, Sameera Maduranga	37	26	4	1	142.31
Dharma Kesumastumped · Balage Dilruksha · K Babu 3 fours · 2 sixes	stumped · Balage Dilruksha · b K Babu	38	32	3	2	118.75
Anjar Tadarusbowled · Kuldeep Gurjar 0 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Kuldeep Gurjar	13	15	0	1	86.67
Ahmad Ramdonicaught · K Babu · Kuldeep Gurjar 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · K Babu · b Kuldeep Gurjar	1	2	0	0	50.00
S Kharvibowled · Kuldeep Gurjar 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kuldeep Gurjar	9	8	1	0	112.50

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Daham Madampage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	0	8.00	1
Sameera Maduranga0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	3	8.75	5
Bilal Ahmad Mir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	0	8.00	0
K Babu0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	5
Kuldeep Gurjar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	4	6.50	1
Saurabh Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	10	0	10.00	0
HMHE Parsons0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	1	11.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	10	16/0
3	7	23/0
4	7	30/0
5	5	35/0
6	16	51/0
7	7	58/0
8	10	68/0
9	6	74/1
10	9	83/1
11	10	93/2
12	7	100/3
13	10	110/3
14	4	114/5
15	10	124/5
16	8	132/6
17	12	144/6
18	10	154/6
19	3	157/9
20	11	168/10

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