Perth ScorchersversusSydney Thunder

3 Jan 2025 · T20

Perth Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sydney Thunder won by 4 wickets

Perth Scorchers20.0 overs177/4 Sydney Thunder20.0 overs179/6 Perth Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Perth Scorchers started on 60%; Perth Scorchers batted first.

Perth Scorchers’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Thunder is the rest

Perth Scorchers's chances ranged from 35% to 93% during the match (Sydney Thunder: 7% to 65%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.4: LR Morris to CJ Green, CJ Green out. Perth Scorchers up from 51% to 69%.
2nd inns 19.4: AJ Tye to SE Rutherford, four by SE Rutherford. Sydney Thunder up from 22% to 46%.
2nd inns 19.6: AJ Tye to SE Rutherford, four by SE Rutherford. Sydney Thunder up from 54% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.