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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024/25 · Men
14 Feb 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 53%; United States of America batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smit Patelbowled · Bernard Scholtz 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Bernard Scholtz | 17 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 45.95 |
| Andries Gouscaught · Zane Green · Bernard Scholtz 9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zane Green · b Bernard Scholtz | 83 | 105 | 9 | 0 | 79.05 |
| Monank Patelcaught · Gerhard Erasmus · Bernard Scholtz 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gerhard Erasmus · b Bernard Scholtz | 53 | 67 | 4 | 0 | 79.10 |
| Saiteja Mukkamallabowled · Bernard Scholtz 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Bernard Scholtz | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Milind Kumarcaught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · Bernard Scholtz 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton · b Bernard Scholtz | 4 | 11 | 1 |
United States of America's chances ranged from 52% to 100% during the match (Namibia: 0% to 48%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 0 |
| 36.36 |
| Aaron Jonescaught · Malan Kruger · Jack Brassell 2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Malan Kruger · b Jack Brassell | 31 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 114.81 |
|---|
| Sanjay Krishnamurthicaught · Malan Kruger · Jack Brassell 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Malan Kruger · b Jack Brassell | 41 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 141.38 |
|---|
| Harmeet Singhcaught · Jean-Pierre Kotze · Ruben Trumpelmann 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jean-Pierre Kotze · b Ruben Trumpelmann | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 77.78 |
|---|
| Jasdeep Singhlbw · JJ Smit 0 fours · 2 sixes | lbw · b JJ Smit | 15 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 214.29 |
|---|
| Nosthush Kenjigenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkarnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmann0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 76 | 1 | 7.60 | 4 | 0 |
| JJ Smit1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 56 | 1 | 5.60 | 1 | 0 |
| Bernard Scholtz2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 22 | 5 | 2.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Brassell0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 42 | 2 | 6.00 | 4 | 1 |
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 5.29 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan-Izak de Villiers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerhard Erasmus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-40 (Smit Patel, 10.2) · 2-136 (Monank Patel, 30.2) · 3-144 (Saiteja Mukkamalla, 32.1) · 4-150 (Milind Kumar, 35.0) · 5-165 (Andries Gous, 39.0) · 6-221 (Aaron Jones, 45.2) · 7-246 (Sanjay Krishnamurthi, 47.5) · 8-254 (Harmeet Singh, 48.4) · 9-264 (Jasdeep Singh, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 20/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 26/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 28/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 31/0 |
| 9 | 1 | 32/0 |
| 10 | 7 | 39/0 |
| 11 | 2 | 41/1 |
| 12 | 12 | 53/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 54/1 |
| 14 | 8 | 62/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 65/1 |
| 16 | 2 | 67/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 72/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 76/1 |
| 19 | 6 | 82/1 |
| 20 | 5 | 87/1 |
| 21 | 7 | 94/1 |
| 22 | 5 | 99/1 |
| 23 | 4 | 103/1 |
| 24 | 7 | 110/1 |
| 25 | 5 | 115/1 |
| 26 | 4 | 119/1 |
| 27 | 4 | 123/1 |
| 28 | 3 | 126/1 |
| 29 | 3 | 129/1 |
| 30 | 7 | 136/1 |
| 31 | 0 | 136/2 |
| 32 | 8 | 144/2 |
| 33 | 0 | 144/3 |
| 34 | 1 | 145/3 |
| 35 | 5 | 150/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 153/4 |
| 37 | 1 | 154/4 |
| 38 | 7 | 161/4 |
| 39 | 4 | 165/5 |
| 40 | 6 | 171/5 |
| 41 | 1 | 172/5 |
| 42 | 7 | 179/5 |
| 43 | 8 | 187/5 |
| 44 | 22 | 209/5 |
| 45 | 12 | 221/5 |
| 46 | 4 | 225/6 |
| 47 | 13 | 238/6 |
| 48 | 8 | 246/7 |
| 49 | 10 | 256/8 |
| 50 | 12 | 268/9 |
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
