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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024/25 · Men
14 Feb 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 53%; United States of America batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Pierre Kotzelbw · Milind Kumar 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Milind Kumar | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
| Zane Greencaught · Sanjay Krishnamurthi · Saurabh Netravalkar 7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sanjay Krishnamurthi · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 65 | 90 | 7 | 0 | 72.22 |
| Jan Frylincklbw · Milind Kumar 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Milind Kumar | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Gerhard Erasmuscaught · Smit Patel · Nosthush Kenjige 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Smit Patel · b Nosthush Kenjige | 11 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 45.83 |
 Malan Krugerbowled · Milind Kumar1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Milind Kumar |
United States of America's chances ranged from 52% to 100% during the match (Namibia: 0% to 48%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 12 |
| 25 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 48.00 |
| JJ Smitcaught · Saiteja Mukkamalla · Harmeet Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saiteja Mukkamalla · b Harmeet Singh | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatonlbw · Saurabh Netravalkar 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 28 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
| Ruben Trumpelmannbowled · Jasdeep Singh 7 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Jasdeep Singh | 55 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 157.14 |
|---|
| Jan-Izak de Villiersnot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 14* | 18 | 0 | 1 | 77.78 |
|---|
| Bernard Scholtzbowled · Jasdeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasdeep Singh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Jack Brassellcaught · Aaron Jones · Saurabh Netravalkar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aaron Jones · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 1 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkar1 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 8.3 | 1 | 41 | 3 | 4.82 | 0 | 2 |
| Milind Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 42 | 3 | 4.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Nosthush Kenjige1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 4.78 | 1 | 0 |
| Jasdeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 4.13 | 0 | 2 |
| Harmeet Singh1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 5.57 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (Jean-Pierre Kotze, 1.2) · 2-7 (Jan Frylinck, 1.5) · 3-35 (Gerhard Erasmus, 9.4) · 4-64 (Malan Kruger, 18.1) · 5-65 (JJ Smit, 19.1) · 6-115 (Zane Green, 32.2) · 7-136 (Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton, 36.1) · 8-197 (Ruben Trumpelmann, 41.3) · 9-197 (Bernard Scholtz, 41.4) · 10-198 (Jack Brassell, 42.3)
Recorded target: 269 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 11/2 |
| 3 | 3 | 14/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 19/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 23/2 |
| 6 | 0 | 23/2 |
| 7 | 0 | 23/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 24/2 |
| 9 | 10 | 34/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 35/3 |
| 11 | 1 | 36/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 39/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 42/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 47/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 53/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 55/3 |
| 17 | 4 | 59/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 64/3 |
| 19 | 1 | 65/4 |
| 20 | 0 | 65/5 |
| 21 | 7 | 72/5 |
| 22 | 3 | 75/5 |
| 23 | 3 | 78/5 |
| 24 | 4 | 82/5 |
| 25 | 4 | 86/5 |
| 26 | 7 | 93/5 |
| 27 | 1 | 94/5 |
| 28 | 5 | 99/5 |
| 29 | 5 | 104/5 |
| 30 | 1 | 105/5 |
| 31 | 4 | 109/5 |
| 32 | 5 | 114/5 |
| 33 | 2 | 116/6 |
| 34 | 3 | 119/6 |
| 35 | 7 | 126/6 |
| 36 | 10 | 136/6 |
| 37 | 6 | 142/7 |
| 38 | 15 | 157/7 |
| 39 | 7 | 164/7 |
| 40 | 15 | 179/7 |
| 41 | 14 | 193/7 |
| 42 | 4 | 197/9 |
| 43 | 1 | 198/10 |
Malan Kruger: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
