MalaysiaversusKuwait

4 Feb 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Malaysia won by 26 runs

Malaysia20.0 overs108/6 Kuwait20.0 overs82/7 Johor Cricket Academy Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Malaysia more likely to win

76%Malaysia24%Kuwait

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Malaysia rate stronger than Kuwait (1,430 vs 1,350 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Malaysia won 3 and Kuwait won 0
Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malaysia started on 74%; Malaysia batted first.

Malaysia’s chance of winning (%) · Kuwait is the rest

Malaysia's chances ranged from 75% to 100% during the match (Kuwait: 0% to 25%).

Biggest swings

4.2: Madeeha Zuberi to Ainna Hamizah Hashim, Ainna Hamizah Hashim out. Kuwait up from 16% to 20%.
2nd inns 0.4: Ainna Hamizah Hashim to Priyada Murali, Priyada Murali out. Malaysia up from 84% to 89%.
2nd inns 3.3: Nur Dania Syuhada to Khadija Khalil, Khadija Khalil out. Malaysia up from 88% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malaysia108/6 Kuwait82/7

Innings 2

Kuwait

82/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Kuwait batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Priyada Muralibowled · Ainna Hamizah Hashim 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ainna Hamizah Hashim	0	4	0	0	0.00
B Shantibowled · Winifred Duraisingam 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Winifred Duraisingam	16	31	1	0	51.61
Khadija Khalillbw · Nur Dania Syuhada 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Nur Dania Syuhada	1	6	0	0	16.67
Amna Tariqcaught · Nur Aishah · Nik Nur Atiela 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nur Aishah · b Nik Nur Atiela	12	23	0	0	52.17
S Lita D'Salbw · Dhanusri Muhunan 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Dhanusri Muhunan	9	8	2	0	112.50

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ainna Hamizah Hashim1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	12	1	3.00	2
Aisya Eleesa0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	20	0	6.67	4
Nur Dania Syuhada1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	12	2	3.00	0
Nik Nur Atiela0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	1	5.00	1
Winifred Duraisingam1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	17	1	4.25	2
Mas Elysa0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	1	5.00	2
Dhanusri Muhunan1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	1	0	1	0.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/1
2	5	5/1
3	2	7/1
4	2	9/2
5	4	13/2
6	6	19/2
7	3	22/2
8	6	28/2
9	0	28/2
10	4	32/3
11	2	34/4
12	8	42/4
13	5	47/4
14	2	49/5
15	0	49/6
16	0	49/7
17	12	61/7
18	4	65/7
19	6	71/7
20	11	82/7

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