PakistanversusNew Zealand

21 Apr 2024 · T20

Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 7 wickets

Pakistan20.0 overs178/4 New Zealand18.2 overs179/3 Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

53%Pakistan47%New Zealand

Why

Pakistan are playing at home in Pakistan
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 6 and Pakistan won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Pakistan rate stronger than New Zealand (1,553 vs 1,546 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 49%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 68% during the match (New Zealand: 32% to 100%).

Biggest swings

6.2: IS Sodhi to Saim Ayub, Saim Ayub out. New Zealand up from 35% to 44%.
2nd inns 4.5: Abbas Afridi to TL Seifert, TL Seifert out. Pakistan up from 28% to 41%.
2nd inns 5.5: Naseem Shah to TB Robinson, TB Robinson out. Pakistan up from 34% to 47%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.