Central DistrictsversusNorthern Districts

26 Jan 2024 · T20

Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Central Districts won by 45 runs

Central Districts20.0 overs151/5 Northern Districts16.5 overs106/10 Seddon Park, Hamilton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 46%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Northern Districts is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Northern Districts: 0% to 65%).

Biggest swings

0.6: NH Patel to NC Dodd, NC Dodd out. Northern Districts up from 57% to 65%.
2nd inns 0.3: HM Rowe to JM Watkin, JM Watkin out. Central Districts up from 68% to 78%.
2nd inns 3.3: CL Green to AC Jayangani, AC Jayangani out. Central Districts up from 71% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.