ThailandversusScotland

24 Jan 2026 · T20

Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Scotland won by 5 wickets

Thailand20.0 overs118/6 Scotland14.4 overs124/5 Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

57%Thailand43%Scotland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Scotland (1,749 vs 1,641 on our results rating)
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Scotland won 6 and Thailand won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 55%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Scotland is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 0% to 56% during the match (Scotland: 44% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.1: KE Bryce to A Suwanchonrathi, A Suwanchonrathi out. Scotland up from 44% to 56%.
2nd inns 0.3: P Maya to DEM Carter, DEM Carter out. Thailand up from 40% to 52%.
2nd inns 1.4: T Putthawong to KE Bryce, KE Bryce out. Thailand up from 35% to 46%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.