**The County Ground, Taunton**
Photo: Harrias
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

EssexversusSomerset

31 May 2024 · T20

The County Ground, Taunton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Somerset won by 4 wickets

Essex20.0 overs193/6 Somerset19.1 overs197/6 The County Ground, Taunton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Essex started on 35%; Essex batted first.

Essex’s chance of winning (%) · Somerset is the rest

Essex's chances ranged from 0% to 66% during the match (Somerset: 34% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.5: MJJ Critchley to T Kohler-Cadmore, T Kohler-Cadmore out. Essex up from 50% to 66%.
2nd inns 13.2: Aaron Beard to SR Dickson, SR Dickson out. Essex up from 33% to 48%.
2nd inns 15.6: SR Harmer to TB Abell, six by TB Abell. Somerset up from 67% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Somerset chose to field
Player of the match: Lewis Gregory
match referees: AM Smith
tv umpires: PK Baldwin
umpires: ID Blackwell, Rob White

Match history & source

On 31 May 2024, Essex played Somerset at The County Ground, Taunton. Recorded result: Somerset won by 4 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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