**Saxton Oval, Nelson**
Photo: Nelsonpubliclibraries
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2024/25 · Men

Central DistrictsversusNorthern Districts

6 Jan 2025 · T20

Saxton Oval, Nelson · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Central Districts won by 64 runs

Central Districts20.0 overs195/5 Northern Districts18.1 overs131/10 Saxton Oval, Nelson ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 52%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Northern Districts is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (Northern Districts: 0% to 63%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.2: AR Schaw to JF Carter, KD Clarke out. Central Districts up from 72% to 82%.
2nd inns 2.6: BM Tickner to BJ Pomare, BJ Pomare out. Central Districts up from 73% to 83%.
2nd inns 5.5: JFA Field to RR O'Donnell, RR O'Donnell out. Central Districts up from 83% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts195/5 Northern Districts131/10

Innings 1