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Photo: Nelsonpubliclibraries
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Super Smash · 2024/25 · Men
6 Jan 2025 · T20
Saxton Oval, Nelson · Venue photographRecorded result
Central Districts started on 52%; Central Districts batted first.
Central Districts's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (Northern Districts: 0% to 63%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 6 Jan 2025, Central Districts played Northern Districts at Saxton Oval, Nelson. Recorded result: Central Districts won by 64 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.