Colombo StrikersversusKandy Falcons

6 Jul 2024 · T20

Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Colombo Strikers won by 2 runs

Colombo Strikers20.0 overs199/9 Kandy Falcons20.0 overs197/8 Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Colombo Strikers started on 43%; Colombo Strikers batted first.

Colombo Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Kandy Falcons is the rest

Colombo Strikers's chances ranged from 27% to 99% during the match (Kandy Falcons: 1% to 74%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.4: M Pathirana to MD Shanaka, MD Shanaka out. Colombo Strikers up from 45% to 63%.
2nd inns 19.5: NLTC Perera to AD Mathews, six by AD Mathews. Kandy Falcons up from 10% to 51%.
2nd inns 19.6: NLTC Perera to AD Mathews, AD Mathews out. Colombo Strikers up from 49% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Colombo Strikers199/9 Kandy Falcons197/8

Innings 1