NigeriaversusBrazil

15 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Brazil won by 7 wickets

Nigeria20.0 overs117/5 Brazil18.4 overs120/3 Gahanga B Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Brazil more likely to win

35%Nigeria65%Brazil

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Brazil rate stronger than Nigeria (1,588 vs 1,507 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Brazil won 2 and Nigeria won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nigeria started on 33%; Nigeria batted first.

Nigeria’s chance of winning (%) · Brazil is the rest

Nigeria's chances ranged from 0% to 66% during the match (Brazil: 34% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.4: R Samson to LV Boas, LV Boas out. Nigeria up from 41% to 52%.
2nd inns 3.4: H Mbam to L Cardoso, L Cardoso out. Nigeria up from 52% to 64%.
2nd inns 8.3: L Udeh to L Agatha, L Agatha out. Nigeria up from 36% to 49%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nigeria117/5 Brazil120/3

Innings 2

Brazil

120/318.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Brazil batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
LV Boascaught · S Etim · R Samson 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · S Etim · b R Samson	8	9	1	0	88.89
L Agathabowled · L Udeh 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b L Udeh	17	24	2	0	70.83
Laura Cardosolbw · H Mbam 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b H Mbam	2	3	0	0	66.67
MR Machadonot out 2 fours · 2 sixes	not out	48*	35	2	2	137.14
Roberta Moretti Averynot out 6 fours · 0 sixes	not out	43*	41	6	0	104.88
Extras	byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
R Samson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	1	3.75	0
H Mbam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	0
A Adekunle0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	0	13.00	0
L Udeh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	13	1	3.25	1
C Chukwuonye0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.4	20	0	12.00	1
F Eseigbe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	0	8.00	0
O Omonkhobio0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	8	11/0
3	3	14/1
4	2	16/2
5	3	19/2
6	10	29/2
7	6	35/2
8	13	48/2
9	4	52/3
10	13	65/3
11	3	68/3
12	5	73/3
13	2	75/3
14	8	83/3
15	4	87/3
16	7	94/3
17	8	102/3
18	11	113/3
19	7	120/3

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.