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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
8 Jun 2024 · T20
Providence Stadium, Guyana · Venue photographRecorded result
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 36%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 34% to 100% during the match (Uganda: 0% to 66%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RG Mukasalbw · Akeal Hosein 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Akeal Hosein | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Simon Ssesazicaught · Alzarri Joseph · Romario Shepherd 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alzarri Joseph · b Romario Shepherd | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Robinson Obuyabowled · Andre Russell 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Andre Russell | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
| AR Ramjanilbw · Akeal Hosein 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Akeal Hosein | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
| Kenneth Waiswalbw · Akeal Hosein 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Akeal Hosein | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 |
| Riazat Ali Shah |
| bowled · b Akeal Hosein |
| 3 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 37.50 |
| Dinesh Nakranibowled · Akeal Hosein 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Akeal Hosein | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Brian Masabacaught · Nicolas Pooran · Alzarri Joseph 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nicolas Pooran · b Alzarri Joseph | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Juma Miyaginot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 13* | 20 | 0 | 0 | 65.00 |
|---|
| Cosmas Kyewutalbw · Gudakesh Motie 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Gudakesh Motie | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| F Nsubugabowled · Alzarri Joseph 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Alzarri Joseph | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Andre Russell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 2.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (RG Mukasa, 0.2) · 2-8 (Simon Ssesazi, 1.3) · 3-15 (AR Ramjani, 3.0) · 4-15 (Robinson Obuya, 3.1) · 5-19 (Riazat Ali Shah, 4.4) · 6-22 (Dinesh Nakrani, 6.1) · 7-23 (Kenneth Waiswa, 6.5) · 8-25 (Brian Masaba, 7.4) · 9-34 (Cosmas Kyewuta, 11.0) · 10-39 (F Nsubuga, 12.0)
Recorded target: 174 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 10/2 |
| 3 | 5 | 15/3 |
| 4 | 4 | 19/4 |
| 5 | 2 | 21/5 |
| 6 | 1 | 22/5 |
| 7 | 1 | 23/7 |
| 8 | 2 | 25/8 |
| 9 | 3 | 28/8 |
| 10 | 3 | 31/8 |
| 11 | 3 | 34/9 |
| 12 | 5 | 39/10 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Andre Russell: The Madras · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
