IndiaversusBangladesh

9 May 2024 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 21 runs

India20.0 overs156/5 Bangladesh20.0 overs135/6 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

88%India12%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,659 vs 1,399 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 9 and Bangladesh won 1
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 88%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

India's chances ranged from 88% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 12%).

Biggest swings

4.1: Sultana Khatun to Shafali Verma, Shafali Verma out. Bangladesh up from 9% to 12%.
2nd inns 2.4: TR Sadhu to S Mostary, S Mostary out. India up from 93% to 95%.
2nd inns 3.1: RP Yadav to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. India up from 94% to 96%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India156/5 Bangladesh135/6

Innings 2

Bangladesh

135/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Aktercaught · Pooja Vastrakar · Radha Yadav 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Pooja Vastrakar · b Radha Yadav	4	8	0	0	50.00
Sobhana Mostarycaught · Radha Yadav · Titas Sadhu 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Radha Yadav · b Titas Sadhu	13	9	3	0	144.44
Rubya Haiderlbw · Radha Yadav 3 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Radha Yadav	20	21	3	0	95.24
Nigar Sultanabowled · Radha Yadav 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Radha Yadav	7	14	0	0	50.00
Ritu Monibowled · Asha Sobhana 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Asha Sobhana	37

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Titas Sadhu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	1
Pooja Vastrakar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	0	9.33	2
Radha Yadav0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	3	6.00	6
Sajeevan Sajana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	12	0	6.00	0
Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	0	6.33	1
Asha Sobhana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	14	16/0
3	9	25/1
4	3	28/2
5	5	33/2
6	3	36/2
7	4	40/2
8	7	47/2
9	1	48/4
10	4	52/5
11	12	64/5
12	7	71/5
13	11	82/5
14	8	90/5
15	6	96/5
16	9	105/5
17	9	114/6
18	6	120/6
19	5	125/6
20	10	135/6

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