AustriaversusSlovenia

17 May 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Austria won by 75 runs

Austria20.1 overs155/10 Slovenia19.4 overs80/10 Velden Cricket Ground, Latschach ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Austria more likely to win

81%Austria19%Slovenia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Austria rate stronger than Slovenia (1,501 vs 1,333 on our results rating)
Austria are playing at home in Austria
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Austria won 1 and Slovenia won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Austria started on 79%; Austria batted first.

Austria’s chance of winning (%) · Slovenia is the rest

Austria's chances ranged from 55% to 100% during the match (Slovenia: 0% to 45%).

Biggest swings

2.2: Awais Ikram to Karanbir Singh, Karanbir Singh out. Slovenia up from 25% to 34%.
9.3: S Koppolu to Arsalan Arif, Arsalan Arif out. Slovenia up from 31% to 40%.
2nd inns 1.5: Zeeshan Goraya to Tarun Sharma, Tarun Sharma out. Austria up from 74% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Austria155/10 Slovenia80/10

Innings 2

Slovenia

80/1019.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Slovenia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tarun Sharma (2)lbw · Zeeshan Goraya 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Zeeshan Goraya	1	8	0	0	12.50
D Matlacaught · Mansoor Safi · Umair Tariq 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mansoor Safi · b Umair Tariq	9	19	0	0	47.37
Izaz Alicaught · Hamid Safi · Zeeshan Goraya 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Hamid Safi · b Zeeshan Goraya	1	6	0	0	16.67
Shahid Arshadcaught · Mansoor Safi · Aqib Iqbal 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mansoor Safi · b Aqib Iqbal	1	2	0	0	50.00
Taher Muhammadlbw · Bilal Zalmai 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Bilal Zalmai	6	12	0	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Aqib Iqbal1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	6	1	1.50	1
Zeeshan Goraya1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	5	2	1.67	0
Umair Tariq0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	14	2	7.00	1
Bilal Zalmai0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	2	5.25	4
Ziaurahman Shinwari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	0	6.33	1
KR Jha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	7	2	3.50	0
Karanbir Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	2	0	2.00	0
Hamid Safi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	0.4	0	0	1	0.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	0	2/1
3	6	8/1
4	1	9/2
5	0	9/3
6	4	13/3
7	6	19/4
8	2	21/4
9	6	27/5
10	8	35/6
11	8	43/6
12	10	53/6
13	6	59/6
14	6	65/6
15	2	67/7
16	4	71/7
17	1	72/9
18	2	74/9
19	6	80/9
20	0	80/10

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