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Photo: Krish Dulal
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
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Women's T20 World Cup Qualifier · 2025/26 · Women
26 Jan 2026 · T20
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 70%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Nepal: 0% to 49%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcey Cartercaught · Samjhana Khadka · M Upadhayay 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Samjhana Khadka · b M Upadhayay | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Katherine Fraserbowled · M Upadhayay 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b M Upadhayay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kathryn Brycelbw · M Upadhayay 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b M Upadhayay | 8 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 88.89 |
| Sarah Brycebowled · Sita Rana Magar 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sita Rana Magar | 18 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Ailsa Listercaught · Kabita Joshi · M Upadhayay 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kabita Joshi · b M Upadhayay | 22 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 91.67 |
| bowled · b Kabita Joshi |
| 17 |
| 14 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 121.43 |
| Priyanaz Chatterjinot out 7 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 45* | 28 | 7 | 0 | 160.71 |
|---|
| Rachel Slaterbowled · Rubina Chhetri 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rubina Chhetri | 11 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 78.57 |
|---|
| Chloe Abelbowled · Riya Sharma 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Riya Sharma | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Abtaha Maqsoodcaught · Kabita Joshi · Rubina Chhetri 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kabita Joshi · b Rubina Chhetri | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Olivia Bellbowled · Rubina Chhetri 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rubina Chhetri | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 11 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Upadhayay0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 4.25 | 3 | 0 |
| Puja Mahato0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 11.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Rubina Chhetri0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 3 | 5.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Riya Sharma0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 10.25 | 2 | 1 |
 Sita Rana Magar0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 3 | 0 |
 Kabita Joshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Katherine Fraser, 0.2) · 2-5 (Darcey Carter, 0.4) · 3-17 (Kathryn Bryce, 2.4) · 4-41 (Sarah Bryce, 7.0) · 5-69 (Ailsa Lister, 10.0) · 6-79 (Megan McColl, 11.4) · 7-123 (Rachel Slater, 17.2) · 8-129 (Chloe Abel, 18.2) · 9-140 (Abtaha Maqsood, 19.5) · 10-140 (Olivia Bell, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/2 |
| 2 | 10 | 16/2 |
| 3 | 1 | 17/3 |
| 4 | 5 | 22/3 |
| 5 | 6 | 28/3 |
| 6 | 10 | 38/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 41/4 |
| 8 | 15 | 56/4 |
| 9 | 8 | 64/4 |
| 10 | 5 | 69/5 |
| 11 | 6 | 75/5 |
| 12 | 6 | 81/6 |
| 13 | 1 | 82/6 |
| 14 | 11 | 93/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 97/6 |
| 16 | 13 | 110/6 |
| 17 | 12 | 122/6 |
| 18 | 5 | 127/7 |
| 19 | 4 | 131/8 |
| 20 | 9 | 140/10 |
Kabita Joshi: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sita Rana Magar: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rubina Chhetri: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bindu Rawal: Surajthapa1207 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
