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Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
28 Dec 2024 · T20
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 65%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 6% to 97% during the match (Sri Lanka: 3% to 94%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Robinsoncaught and bowled · Binura Fernando 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Binura Fernando | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 122.22 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Kusal Mendis · Binura Fernando0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Binura Fernando | 8 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
| Mark Chapmancaught · Kamindu Mendis · Matheesha Pathirana 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Matheesha Pathirana | 15 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 115.38 |
| Glenn Phillipslbw · Wanindu Hasaranga 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 8 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 88.89 |
| Daryl Mitchellstumped · Kusal Mendis · Mahesh Theekshana4 fours · 2 sixes |
| stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Mahesh Theekshana |
| 62 |
| 42 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 147.62 |
| Mitchell Haylbw · Wanindu Hasaranga 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Michael Bracewellcaught · Kusal Mendis · Mahesh Theekshana 4 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Mahesh Theekshana | 59 | 33 | 4 | 4 | 178.79 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnernot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Zakary Foulkesrun out · Kusal Mendis, Kamindu Mendis · Mahesh Theekshana 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kusal Mendis, Kamindu Mendis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuwan Thushara0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Binura Fernando0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Matheesha Pathirana0 maidens · 1 wides · 3 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 60 | 1 | 15.00 | 1 | 3 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-20 (Tim Robinson, 3.3) · 2-21 (Rachin Ravindra, 4.0) · 3-39 (Mark Chapman, 6.4) · 4-65 (Glenn Phillips, 9.4) · 5-65 (Mitchell Hay, 9.5) · 6-170 (Daryl Mitchell, 19.3) · 7-171 (Michael Bracewell, 19.5) · 8-172 (Zakary Foulkes, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 19/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 21/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 26/2 |
| 6 | 6 | 32/2 |
| 7 | 10 | 42/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 47/3 |
| 9 | 13 | 60/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 65/5 |
| 11 | 4 | 69/5 |
| 12 | 8 | 77/5 |
| 13 | 7 | 84/5 |
| 14 | 12 | 96/5 |
| 15 | 22 | 118/5 |
| 16 | 15 | 133/5 |
| 17 | 11 | 144/5 |
| 18 | 10 | 154/5 |
| 19 | 15 | 169/5 |
| 20 | 3 | 172/8 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
