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Sri Lanka tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Men
28 Dec 2024 · T20
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 65%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 6% to 97% during the match (Sri Lanka: 3% to 94%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Tim Robinson · Matt Henry 7 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Tim Robinson · b Matt Henry | 90 | 60 | 7 | 3 | 150.00 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Mitchell Hay · Jacob Duffy 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mitchell Hay · b Jacob Duffy | 46 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 127.78 |
| Kushal Janith Pereracaught · Mitchell Hay · Jacob Duffy 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Hay · b Jacob Duffy | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Mitchell Hay · Jacob Duffy 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Hay · b Jacob Duffy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Michael Bracewell · Zakary Foulkes 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael Bracewell · b Zakary Foulkes | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 42.86 |
| Bhanuka Rajapaksabowled · Matt Henry 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matt Henry | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 160.00 |
|---|
 Wanindu Hasarangarun out · Zakary Foulkes · Zakary Foulkes1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Zakary Foulkes | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 250.00 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshanacaught · Jacob Duffy · Zakary Foulkes 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jacob Duffy · b Zakary Foulkes | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Binura Fernandonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Matheesha Pathirananot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 5.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Zakary Foulkes0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 2 | 10.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Rachin Ravindra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-121 (Kusal Mendis, 13.3) · 2-121 (Kushal Janith Perera, 13.5) · 3-121 (Kamindu Mendis, 14.0) · 4-145 (Charith Asalanka, 17.2) · 5-153 (Pathum Nissanka, 18.2) · 6-154 (Bhanuka Rajapaksa, 18.4) · 7-159 (Mahesh Theekshana, 19.1) · 8-159 (Wanindu Hasaranga, 19.2)
Recorded target: 173 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 19/0 |
| 4 | 18 | 37/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 46/0 |
| 6 | 10 | 56/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 65/0 |
| 8 | 12 | 77/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 81/0 |
| 10 | 14 | 95/0 |
| 11 | 4 | 99/0 |
| 12 | 11 | 110/0 |
| 13 | 10 | 120/0 |
| 14 | 1 | 121/3 |
| 15 | 7 | 128/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 133/3 |
| 17 | 11 | 144/3 |
| 18 | 9 | 153/4 |
| 19 | 6 | 159/6 |
| 20 | 5 | 164/8 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
