IndiaversusNew Zealand

India more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than New Zealand (1,760 vs 1,604 on our results rating)
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and New Zealand won 2
• New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

India started on 75%; India batted first.

India's chances ranged from 0% to 91% during the match (New Zealand: 9% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1. 3.1: AF Milne to SV Samson, SV Samson out. New Zealand up from 31% to 44%.
2. 2nd inns 8.3: CV Varun to DJ Mitchell, DJ Mitchell out. India up from 48% to 61%.
3. 2nd inns 11.6: Arshdeep Singh to TL Seifert, four by TL Seifert. New Zealand up from 61% to 72%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.