NorwayversusAustria

10 Jun 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Austria won by 9 wickets

Norway20.0 overs149/8 Austria13.5 overs155/1 Scott Page Field, Vinor ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Austria more likely to win

46%Norway54%Austria

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Austria rate stronger than Norway (1,565 vs 1,537 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Norway started on 44%; Norway batted first.

Norway’s chance of winning (%) · Austria is the rest

Norway's chances ranged from 0% to 54% during the match (Austria: 46% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.2: Waqar Zalmai to Khizer Ahmed, Khizer Ahmed out. Austria up from 47% to 58%.
5.1: Aqib Iqbal to Chaudhary Akram, Chaudhary Akram out. Austria up from 51% to 60%.
11.1: Bilal Zalmai to D Abeyrathna, D Abeyrathna out. Austria up from 60% to 67%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Norway149/8 Austria155/1

Innings 2

Austria

155/113.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Austria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Karanbir Singhnot out 10 fours · 6 sixes	not out	86*	48	10	6	179.17
Bilal Zalmaicaught · Qamar Mushtaque · AJ Parmar 6 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Qamar Mushtaque · b AJ Parmar	40	20	6	2	200.00
Razmal Shigiwalnot out 3 fours · 0 sixes	not out	22*	15	3	0	146.67
Extras	byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0

Bowling
Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Ahmadullah Shinwari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	27	0	13.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	16	16/0
2	13	29/0
3	4	33/0
4	16	49/0
5	6	55/0
6	11	66/0
7	12	78/1
8	11	89/1
9	18	107/1
10	6	113/1
11	7	120/1
12	3	123/1
13	11	134/1
14	21	155/1

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