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Hong Kong tour of Japan · 2026 · Men
19 Sept 2026 · T20
Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Hong Kong more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 44%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 2% to 65% during the match (Hong Kong: 36% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nizakat Khanlbw · Charlie Hara-Hinze 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Charlie Hara-Hinze | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Anshuman Rathcaught · M Taniyama · Charlie Hara-Hinze 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Taniyama · b Charlie Hara-Hinze | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Babar Hayatcaught · M Taniyama · B Ito-Davis 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Taniyama · b B Ito-Davis | 13 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 92.86 |
| S Mathurcaught and bowled · B Ito-Davis 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b B Ito-Davis | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Shahid Wasifnot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 30* | 31 | 2 | 0 | 96.77 |
| lbw · b B Ito-Davis |
| 3 |
| 14 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 21.43 |
| Hassan Khan Mohammadstumped · W Miyauchi · M Taniyama 2 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · W Miyauchi · b M Taniyama | 25 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 78.13 |
|---|
| Ehsan Khannot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 14* | 11 | 1 | 0 | 127.27 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Hara-Hinze0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Ibrahim Takahashi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 5.68 | 0 | 0 |
| B Ito-Davis1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 2.75 | 1 | 0 |
| M Taniyama0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 5.00 | 1 | 1 |
| D Suzuki0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 2 |
| R Sakurano-Thomas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| S Sugaya-Slater0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Nizakat Khan, 1.0) · 2-17 (Anshuman Rath, 2.5) · 3-18 (S Mathur, 3.5) · 4-25 (Babar Hayat, 5.4) · 5-36 (Yasim Murtaza, 8.5) · 6-70 (Hassan Khan Mohammad, 15.2)
Recorded target: 96 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 8 | 12/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 17/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 22/3 |
| 5 | 3 | 25/3 |
| 6 | 0 | 25/4 |
| 7 | 7 | 32/4 |
| 8 | 3 | 35/4 |
| 9 | 1 | 36/5 |
| 10 | 7 | 43/5 |
| 11 | 4 | 47/5 |
| 12 | 9 | 56/5 |
| 13 | 7 | 63/5 |
| 14 | 3 | 66/5 |
| 15 | 4 | 70/5 |
| 16 | 4 | 74/6 |
| 17 | 5 | 79/6 |
| 18 | 6 | 85/6 |
| 19 | 10 | 95/6 |
| 20 | 4 | 99/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.