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Hong Kong tour of Japan · 2026 · Men
19 Sept 2026 · T20
Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Hong Kong more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 44%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 2% to 65% during the match (Hong Kong: 36% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L Yamamoto-Lakecaught · Nizakat Khan · Nasrulla Rana 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nizakat Khan · b Nasrulla Rana | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 120.00 |
| R Sakurano-Thomascaught · Anshuman Rath · Yasim Murtaza 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anshuman Rath · b Yasim Murtaza | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 30.77 |
| Kendel Kadowaki-Flemingcaught · Nasrulla Rana · Anas Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nasrulla Rana · b Anas Khan | 8 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 38.10 |
| B Ito-Davisbowled · Ehsan Khan 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Ehsan Khan | 35 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 102.94 |
| Charlie Hara-Hinzecaught · Babar Hayat · Yasim Murtaza 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Babar Hayat · b Yasim Murtaza | 15 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
| Ibrahim Takahashicaught · Shahid Wasif · Ehsan Khan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shahid Wasif · b Ehsan Khan | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 45.45 |
|---|
| A Kadowaki Flemingnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27.27 |
|---|
| W Miyauchibowled · Ehsan Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ehsan Khan | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| D Suzukinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anas Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Nasrulla Rana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 5.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Ehsan Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Yasim Murtaza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Ghazanfar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Nizakat Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassan Khan Mohammad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-13 (L Yamamoto-Lake, 2.0) · 2-23 (R Sakurano-Thomas, 5.1) · 3-50 (Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming, 11.1) · 4-70 (Charlie Hara-Hinze, 14.2) · 5-80 (Ibrahim Takahashi, 16.4) · 6-89 (B Ito-Davis, 18.3) · 7-93 (W Miyauchi, 19.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 13/1 |
| 3 | 3 | 16/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 22/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 23/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 27/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 31/2 |
| 8 | 9 | 40/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 44/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 48/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 50/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 53/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 61/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 69/3 |
| 15 | 1 | 70/4 |
| 16 | 6 | 76/4 |
| 17 | 8 | 84/5 |
| 18 | 2 | 86/5 |
| 19 | 7 | 93/7 |
| 20 | 2 | 95/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.