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Photo: Younisjunejo
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Champions Trophy · 2024/25 · Men
5 Mar 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 54%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Michael Bracewell · Matt Henry4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael Bracewell · b Matt Henry | 17 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 141.67 |
 Temba Bavumacaught · Kane Williamson · Mitchell Santner4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kane Williamson · b Mitchell Santner | 56 | 71 | 4 | 1 | 78.87 |
| HE van der Dussenbowled · Mitchell Santner 4 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Santner | 69 | 66 | 4 | 2 | 104.55 |
 Aiden Markramcaught and bowled · Rachin Ravindra3 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 46%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 31 |
| 29 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 106.90 |
| Heinrich Klaasencaught · Matt Henry · Mitchell Santner 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matt Henry · b Mitchell Santner | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
 David Millernot out10 fours · 4 sixes | not out | 100* | 67 | 10 | 4 | 149.25 |
|---|
 Wiaan Muldercaught · Rachin Ravindra · Michael Bracewell1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rachin Ravindra · b Michael Bracewell | 8 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 61.54 |
|---|
 Marco Jansenlbw · Glenn Phillips0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Glenn Phillips | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
 Keshav Maharajcaught · Tom Latham · Glenn Phillips0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Glenn Phillips | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
 Kagiso Rabadacaught · Glenn Phillips · Matt Henry2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Glenn Phillips · b Matt Henry | 16 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 72.73 |
|---|
 Lungi Ngidinot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Henry0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 43 | 2 | 6.14 | 1 | 0 |
 Kyle Jamieson1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 57 | 0 | 8.14 | 0 | 0 |
 William O’Rourke0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 69 | 0 | 8.63 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 5.30 | 3 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 3 | 4.30 | 2 | 0 |
 Rachin Ravindra0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-20 (Ryan Rickelton, 4.5) · 2-125 (Temba Bavuma, 22.2) · 3-161 (HE van der Dussen, 26.5) · 4-167 (Heinrich Klaasen, 28.4) · 5-189 (Aiden Markram, 33.0) · 6-200 (Wiaan Mulder, 36.0) · 7-212 (Marco Jansen, 38.0) · 8-218 (Keshav Maharaj, 39.3) · 9-256 (Kagiso Rabada, 45.3)
Recorded target: 363 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 19/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 24/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 30/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 33/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 36/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 46/1 |
| 10 | 10 | 56/1 |
| 11 | 13 | 69/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 72/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 77/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 79/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 85/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 90/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 94/1 |
| 18 | 11 | 105/1 |
| 19 | 1 | 106/1 |
| 20 | 1 | 107/1 |
| 21 | 11 | 118/1 |
| 22 | 7 | 125/1 |
| 23 | 3 | 128/2 |
| 24 | 11 | 139/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 143/2 |
| 26 | 14 | 157/2 |
| 27 | 5 | 162/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 166/3 |
| 29 | 1 | 167/4 |
| 30 | 7 | 174/4 |
| 31 | 7 | 181/4 |
| 32 | 4 | 185/4 |
| 33 | 4 | 189/5 |
| 34 | 2 | 191/5 |
| 35 | 2 | 193/5 |
| 36 | 7 | 200/6 |
| 37 | 2 | 202/6 |
| 38 | 10 | 212/7 |
| 39 | 5 | 217/7 |
| 40 | 6 | 223/8 |
| 41 | 3 | 226/8 |
| 42 | 11 | 237/8 |
| 43 | 3 | 240/8 |
| 44 | 5 | 245/8 |
| 45 | 8 | 253/8 |
| 46 | 6 | 259/9 |
| 47 | 5 | 264/9 |
| 48 | 15 | 279/9 |
| 49 | 15 | 294/9 |
| 50 | 18 | 312/9 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
David Miller: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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