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Photo: Younisjunejo
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Champions Trophy · 2024/25 · Men
5 Mar 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 54%; New Zealand batted first.
On 5 Mar 2025, New Zealand played South Africa at Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore. Recorded result: New Zealand won by 50 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 54% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 46%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.