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Women's Ashes · 2024/25 · Women
17 Jan 2025 · ODI
Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 82%; Australia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Georgia Wareham | 54 | 77 | 6 | 0 | 70.13 |
| Maia Bouchiercaught · Tahlia McGrath · Megan Schutt 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tahlia McGrath · b Megan Schutt | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alyssa Healy · b Megan Schutt | 14 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 70.00 |
5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Georgia Wareham | 61 |
Australia's chances ranged from 61% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 39%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 68 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 89.71 |
2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Phoebe Litchfield · b Alana King | 35 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 109.38 |
|---|
3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kim Garth · b Alana King | 30 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 115.38 |
|---|
0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Megan Schutt | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Alyssa Healy · b Alana King | 12 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ashleigh Gardner · b Alana King | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kim Garth · b Alana King | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0 | 0 | 57 | 3 | 6.33 | 5 | 0 | |
| 8.0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 | |
| 5.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 5.60 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8.2 | 0 | 46 | 5 | 5.52 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 5.40 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Maia Bouchier, 0.5) · 2-29 (Heather Knight, 6.4) · 3-118 (Tammy Beaumont, 24.3) · 4-151 (Nat Sciver-Brunt, 30.4) · 5-200 (Danielle Wyatt, 36.5) · 6-201 (Alice Capsey, 37.2) · 7-209 (Amy Jones, 38.4) · 8-215 (Sophie Ecclestone, 40.3) · 9-215 (Lauren Filer, 41.0) · 10-222 (Charlie Dean, 42.2)
Recorded target: 309 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 0 | 2/1 |
| 3 | 14 | 16/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 19/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 27/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 28/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 33/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 34/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 39/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 41/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 47/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 53/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 55/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 60/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 67/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 71/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 76/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 78/2 |
| 19 | 7 | 85/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 91/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 94/2 |
| 22 | 7 | 101/2 |
| 23 | 11 | 112/2 |
| 24 | 6 | 118/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 122/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 125/3 |
| 27 | 7 | 132/3 |
| 28 | 5 | 137/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 140/3 |
| 30 | 7 | 147/3 |
| 31 | 7 | 154/4 |
| 32 | 7 | 161/4 |
| 33 | 6 | 167/4 |
| 34 | 12 | 179/4 |
| 35 | 10 | 189/4 |
| 36 | 7 | 196/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 200/5 |
| 38 | 7 | 207/6 |
| 39 | 4 | 211/7 |
| 40 | 3 | 214/7 |
| 41 | 1 | 215/9 |
| 42 | 6 | 221/9 |
| 43 | 1 | 222/10 |
Georgia Wareham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Wyatt: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.