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Women's Ashes · 2024/25 · Women
17 Jan 2025 · ODI
Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 82%; Australia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Phoebe Litchfieldcaught · Amy Jones · Lauren Filer3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Jones · b Lauren Filer | 15 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
 Alyssa Healycaught · Tammy Beaumont · Nat Sciver-Brunt2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tammy Beaumont · b Nat Sciver-Brunt | 15 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 53.57 |
 Ellyse Perrycaught · Lauren Filer · Lauren Bell0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lauren Filer · b Lauren Bell | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
 Beth Mooney |
Australia's chances ranged from 61% to 100% during the match (England: 0% to 39%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Nat Sciver-Brunt · b Charlie Dean |
| 50 |
| 64 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 78.13 |
 Annabel Sutherlandcaught · Sophie Ecclestone · Charlie Dean2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sophie Ecclestone · b Charlie Dean | 10 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
 Ashleigh Gardnercaught · Tammy Beaumont · Lauren Bell8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tammy Beaumont · b Lauren Bell | 102 | 102 | 8 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Tahlia McGrathlbw · Nat Sciver-Brunt8 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nat Sciver-Brunt | 55 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 122.22 |
|---|
 Georgia Warehamnot out5 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 38* | 12 | 5 | 2 | 316.67 |
|---|
 Alana Kingcaught · Alice Capsey · Sophie Ecclestone0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alice Capsey · b Sophie Ecclestone | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 112.50 |
|---|
 Kim Garthnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lauren Bell0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 72 | 2 | 7.20 | 3 | 0 |
 Lauren Filer0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 5.29 | 3 | 0 |
 Nat Sciver-Brunt1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 51 | 2 | 5.10 | 2 | 0 |
 Charlie Dean0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 2 | 5.30 | 1 | 0 |
 Sophie Ecclestone0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 76 | 1 | 7.60 | 1 | 0 |
 Alice Capsey0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-17 (Phoebe Litchfield, 3.3) · 2-27 (Ellyse Perry, 6.3) · 3-46 (Alyssa Healy, 10.0) · 4-59 (Annabel Sutherland, 14.2) · 5-154 (Beth Mooney, 32.1) · 6-257 (Ashleigh Gardner, 46.0) · 7-262 (Tahlia McGrath, 46.5) · 8-291 (Alana King, 49.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 25/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 31/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 33/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 42/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 46/3 |
| 11 | 1 | 47/3 |
| 12 | 0 | 47/3 |
| 13 | 7 | 54/3 |
| 14 | 4 | 58/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 60/4 |
| 16 | 1 | 61/4 |
| 17 | 7 | 68/4 |
| 18 | 8 | 76/4 |
| 19 | 11 | 87/4 |
| 20 | 1 | 88/4 |
| 21 | 8 | 96/4 |
| 22 | 7 | 103/4 |
| 23 | 5 | 108/4 |
| 24 | 2 | 110/4 |
| 25 | 5 | 115/4 |
| 26 | 1 | 116/4 |
| 27 | 7 | 123/4 |
| 28 | 9 | 132/4 |
| 29 | 6 | 138/4 |
| 30 | 7 | 145/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 147/4 |
| 32 | 7 | 154/4 |
| 33 | 5 | 159/5 |
| 34 | 6 | 165/5 |
| 35 | 7 | 172/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 175/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 178/5 |
| 38 | 9 | 187/5 |
| 39 | 8 | 195/5 |
| 40 | 9 | 204/5 |
| 41 | 9 | 213/5 |
| 42 | 10 | 223/5 |
| 43 | 7 | 230/5 |
| 44 | 9 | 239/5 |
| 45 | 14 | 253/5 |
| 46 | 4 | 257/6 |
| 47 | 6 | 263/7 |
| 48 | 15 | 278/7 |
| 49 | 13 | 291/7 |
| 50 | 17 | 308/8 |
Georgia Wareham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Wyatt: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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