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The Ashes · 2025/26 · Men
26 Dec 2025 · Test
Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Scott Bolandcaught · Jamie Smith · Gus Atkinson1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Gus Atkinson | 6 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 35.29 |
 Travis Headbowled · Brydon Carse4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brydon Carse | 46 | 67 | 4 | 0 | 68.66 |
| Jake Weatheraldbowled · Ben Stokes 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ben Stokes | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
 |
| caught · Joe Root · b Josh Tongue |
| 8 |
| 18 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 44.44 |
 Steve Smithnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 24* | 39 | 1 | 0 | 61.54 |
|---|
 Usman Khawajacaught · OJ Pope · Josh Tongue0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · OJ Pope · b Josh Tongue | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Alex Careycaught · Harry Brook · Brydon Carse1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Brydon Carse | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Cameron Greencaught · Harry Brook · Ben Stokes3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Ben Stokes | 19 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 65.52 |
|---|
 Michael Nesercaught and bowled · Brydon Carse0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Brydon Carse | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starccaught · Joe Root · Brydon Carse0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Brydon Carse | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Jhye Richardsoncaught · Zak Crawley · Ben Stokes 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zak Crawley · b Ben Stokes | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 0 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Atkinson1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Brydon Carse3 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 11.0 | 3 | 34 | 4 | 3.09 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Tongue2 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 11.0 | 2 | 44 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 2 |
 Ben Stokes1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.3 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
1-22 (Scott Boland, 6.1) · 2-40 (Jake Weatherald, 10.5) · 3-61 (Marnus Labuschagne, 17.1) · 4-82 (Travis Head, 21.0) · 5-83 (Usman Khawaja, 21.3) · 6-88 (Alex Carey, 22.5) · 7-119 (Cameron Green, 30.5) · 8-120 (Michael Neser, 31.5) · 9-121 (Mitchell Starc, 32.0) · 10-132 (Jhye Richardson, 34.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 11/0 |
| 5 | 11 | 22/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 22/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 22/1 |
| 8 | 10 | 32/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 35/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 39/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 40/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 42/2 |
| 13 | 6 | 48/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 51/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 57/2 |
| 16 | 0 | 57/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 61/2 |
| 18 | 7 | 68/3 |
| 19 | 5 | 73/3 |
| 20 | 6 | 79/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 82/4 |
| 22 | 5 | 87/5 |
| 23 | 1 | 88/6 |
| 24 | 4 | 92/6 |
| 25 | 6 | 98/6 |
| 26 | 12 | 110/6 |
| 27 | 4 | 114/6 |
| 28 | 0 | 114/6 |
| 29 | 2 | 116/6 |
| 30 | 3 | 119/6 |
| 31 | 0 | 119/7 |
| 32 | 2 | 121/9 |
| 33 | 1 | 122/9 |
| 34 | 9 | 131/9 |
| 35 | 1 | 132/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Michael Neser: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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