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The Ashes · 2025/26 · Men
26 Dec 2025 · Test
Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Travis Headbowled · Gus Atkinson2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gus Atkinson | 12 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 54.55 |
| Jake Weatheraldcaught · Jamie Smith · Josh Tongue 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Josh Tongue | 10 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 43.48 |
 Marnus Labuschagnecaught · Joe Root · Josh Tongue0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Josh Tongue | 6 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 31.58 |
 |
| bowled · b Josh Tongue |
| 9 |
| 31 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 29.03 |
 Usman Khawajacaught · Jamie Smith · Gus Atkinson2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Gus Atkinson | 29 | 52 | 2 | 0 | 55.77 |
|---|
 Alex Careycaught · Zak Crawley · Ben Stokes0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zak Crawley · b Ben Stokes | 20 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
|---|
 Cameron Greenrun out · Brydon Carse · Brydon Carse2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Brydon Carse | 17 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Michael Neserbowled · Josh Tongue7 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Josh Tongue | 35 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starccaught · Ben Stokes · Brydon Carse0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Stokes · b Brydon Carse | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Jhye Richardsonnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Scott Bolandcaught · Harry Brook · Josh Tongue0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Josh Tongue | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Atkinson4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 14.0 | 4 | 28 | 2 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Brydon Carse3 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 12.0 | 3 | 42 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Tongue2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 11.2 | 2 | 45 | 5 | 3.97 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Stokes1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 25 | 1 | 3.13 | 0 | 0 |
1-27 (Travis Head, 6.1) · 2-31 (Jake Weatherald, 9.2) · 3-34 (Marnus Labuschagne, 11.5) · 4-51 (Steve Smith, 19.2) · 5-89 (Usman Khawaja, 28.5) · 6-91 (Alex Carey, 31.2) · 7-143 (Cameron Green, 42.1) · 8-152 (Mitchell Starc, 44.5) · 9-152 (Michael Neser, 45.1) · 10-152 (Scott Boland, 45.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 12/0 |
| 5 | 0 | 12/0 |
| 6 | 15 | 27/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 30/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 31/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 31/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 34/2 |
| 11 | 0 | 34/2 |
| 12 | 0 | 34/3 |
| 13 | 0 | 34/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 39/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 43/3 |
| 16 | 0 | 43/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 48/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 51/3 |
| 19 | 0 | 51/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 54/4 |
| 21 | 3 | 57/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 61/4 |
| 23 | 3 | 64/4 |
| 24 | 6 | 70/4 |
| 25 | 2 | 72/4 |
| 26 | 4 | 76/4 |
| 27 | 5 | 81/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 85/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 89/5 |
| 30 | 1 | 90/5 |
| 31 | 1 | 91/5 |
| 32 | 0 | 91/6 |
| 33 | 2 | 93/6 |
| 34 | 2 | 95/6 |
| 35 | 4 | 99/6 |
| 36 | 4 | 103/6 |
| 37 | 8 | 111/6 |
| 38 | 9 | 120/6 |
| 39 | 0 | 120/6 |
| 40 | 1 | 121/6 |
| 41 | 6 | 127/6 |
| 42 | 16 | 143/6 |
| 43 | 8 | 151/7 |
| 44 | 1 | 152/7 |
| 45 | 0 | 152/8 |
| 46 | 0 | 152/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Michael Neser: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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