Sydney ThunderversusHobart Hurricanes

3 Jan 2026 · T20

Sydney Showground Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hobart Hurricanes won by 6 wickets

Sydney Thunder20.0 overs205/4 Hobart Hurricanes17.5 overs207/4 Sydney Showground Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sydney Thunder started on 43%; Sydney Thunder batted first.

Sydney Thunder’s chance of winning (%) · Hobart Hurricanes is the rest

Sydney Thunder's chances ranged from 0% to 77% during the match (Hobart Hurricanes: 23% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.1: W Prestwidge to M Gilkes, M Gilkes out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 56% to 71%.
8.2: NT Ellis to SW Billings, SW Billings out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 53% to 61%.
2nd inns 8.3: DR Sams to MJ Owen, MJ Owen out. Sydney Thunder up from 15% to 24%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.