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Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
South Africa tour of England · 2025 · Men
12 Sept 2025 · T20
Old Trafford · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 61%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 38%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aiden Markramcaught · Will Jacks · Adil Rashid2 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Will Jacks · b Adil Rashid | 41 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 205.00 |
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Liam Dawson · Jofra Archer2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Liam Dawson · b Jofra Archer | 20 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 200.00 |
| LG Pretoriuscaught · Luke Wood · Jofra Archer 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Luke Wood · b Jofra Archer | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Dewald Breviscaught · Jofra Archer · Sam Curran 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jofra Archer · b Sam Curran | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
| caught · Jofra Archer · b Liam Dawson |
| 23 |
| 25 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 92.00 |
| Donavon Ferreiracaught · Jos Buttler · Sam Curran 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Sam Curran | 23 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 209.09 |
|---|
 Marco Jansencaught and bowled · Jofra Archer0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Jofra Archer | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Bjorn Fortuincaught · Jos Buttler · Will Jacks 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Will Jacks | 32 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Kagiso Rabadacaught · Jofra Archer · Liam Dawson2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jofra Archer · b Liam Dawson | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 225.00 |
|---|
| Kwena Maphakacaught · Jacob Bethell · Will Jacks 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jacob Bethell · b Will Jacks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Lizaad Williamsnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Luke Wood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 12.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Jofra Archer0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 8.33 | 1 | 0 |
 Sam Curran0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Liam Dawson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 10.74 | 0 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 12.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-50 (Ryan Rickelton, 3.4) · 2-53 (LG Pretorius, 4.0) · 3-58 (Dewald Brevis, 4.4) · 4-77 (Aiden Markram, 7.3) · 5-115 (Donavon Ferreira, 10.5) · 6-116 (Marco Jansen, 11.3) · 7-127 (Tristan Stubbs, 13.4) · 8-158 (Bjorn Fortuin, 15.3) · 9-158 (Kwena Maphaka, 15.4) · 10-158 (Kagiso Rabada, 16.1)
Recorded target: 305 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 22 | 34/0 |
| 4 | 19 | 53/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 58/3 |
| 6 | 8 | 66/3 |
| 7 | 9 | 75/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 79/4 |
| 9 | 10 | 89/4 |
| 10 | 20 | 109/4 |
| 11 | 6 | 115/5 |
| 12 | 2 | 117/6 |
| 13 | 3 | 120/6 |
| 14 | 15 | 135/7 |
| 15 | 21 | 156/7 |
| 16 | 2 | 158/9 |
| 17 | 0 | 158/10 |
Luke Wood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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