EnglandversusSouth Africa

12 Sept 2025 · T20

Old Trafford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 146 runs

England20.0 overs304/2 South Africa16.1 overs158/10 Old Trafford ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

63%England37%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than South Africa (1,663 vs 1,609 on our results rating)
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 61%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

England's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 38%).

Biggest swings

0.1: M Jansen to PD Salt, four by PD Salt. England up from 62% to 65%.
0.6: M Jansen to PD Salt, six by PD Salt. England up from 70% to 75%.
2.1: LB Williams to JC Buttler, six by JC Buttler. England up from 75% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England304/2 South Africa158/10

Innings 1

England

304/220.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Philip Saltnot out 15 fours · 8 sixes	not out	141*	60	15	8	235.00
Jos Buttlercaught · Tristan Stubbs · Bjorn Fortuin 8 fours · 7 sixes	caught · Tristan Stubbs · b Bjorn Fortuin	83	30	8	7	276.67
Jacob Bethellcaught · Marco Jansen · Bjorn Fortuin 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Marco Jansen · b Bjorn Fortuin	26	14	2	2	185.71
Harry Brooknot out 5 fours · 1 sixes	not out	41*	21	5	1	195.24

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Marco Jansen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	60	0	15.00	0	0
Kagiso Rabada0 maidens · 2 wides · 4 no-balls	4.0	70	0	17.50	2	4
Lizaad Williams0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	62	0	20.67	3	0
Bjorn Fortuin0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	52	2	13.00	2	0
Kwena Maphaka0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	41	0	10.25	1	1
Aiden Markram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	19	0	19.00	0	0

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.