Perth ScorchersversusSydney Sixers

20 Jan 2026 · T20

Perth Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Perth Scorchers won by 48 runs

Perth Scorchers20.0 overs147/9 Sydney Sixers15.0 overs99/10 Perth Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Perth Scorchers started on 50%; Perth Scorchers batted first.

Perth Scorchers’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Sixers is the rest

Perth Scorchers's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Sydney Sixers: 0% to 72%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.6: M Beardman to MC Henriques, MC Henriques out. Perth Scorchers up from 50% to 67%.
2nd inns 8.4: DA Payne to L Shaw, L Shaw out. Perth Scorchers up from 34% to 53%.
2nd inns 9.3: C Connolly to J Edwards, J Edwards out. Perth Scorchers up from 56% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.