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India tour of England · 2025 · Men
10 Jul 2025 · Test
Lord's · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zak Crawleycaught · Rishabh Pant · Nitish Kumar Reddy4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Nitish Kumar Reddy | 18 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 41.86 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Rishabh Pant · Nitish Kumar Reddy3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Nitish Kumar Reddy | 23 | 40 | 3 | 0 | 57.50 |
 Ollie Popecaught · Dhruv Jurel · Ravindra Jadeja4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhruv Jurel · b Ravindra Jadeja | 44 | 104 | 4 | 0 | 42.31 |
| bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah |
| 104 |
| 199 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 52.26 |
 Harry Brookbowled · Jasprit Bumrah2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah | 11 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 55.00 |
|---|
 Ben Stokesbowled · Jasprit Bumrah4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah | 44 | 110 | 4 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Dhruv Jurel · Mohammed Siraj6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhruv Jurel · b Mohammed Siraj | 51 | 56 | 6 | 0 | 91.07 |
|---|
 Chris Woakescaught · Dhruv Jurel · Jasprit Bumrah0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhruv Jurel · b Jasprit Bumrah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsebowled · Mohammed Siraj6 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Mohammed Siraj | 56 | 83 | 6 | 1 | 67.47 |
|---|
 Jofra Archerbowled · Jasprit Bumrah1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jasprit Bumrah | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 36.36 |
|---|
| Shoaib Bashirnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 11 · legbyes: 13 · wides: 5 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jasprit Bumrah5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 27.0 | 5 | 74 | 5 | 2.74 | 0 | 0 |
| Akash Deep3 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 23.0 | 3 | 92 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 1 |
 Mohammed Siraj6 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 23.3 | 6 | 85 | 2 | 3.62 | 5 | 0 |
 Nitish Kumar Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 17.0 | 0 | 62 | 2 | 3.65 | 0 | 0 |
 Ravindra Jadeja1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 12.0 | 1 | 29 | 1 | 2.42 | 0 | 1 |
 Washington Sundar1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 2.10 | 0 | 0 |
1-43 (Ben Duckett, 13.3) · 2-44 (Zak Crawley, 14.0) · 3-153 (Ollie Pope, 49.1) · 4-172 (Harry Brook, 54.5) · 5-260 (Ben Stokes, 85.2) · 6-271 (Joe Root, 87.1) · 7-271 (Chris Woakes, 87.2) · 8-355 (Jamie Smith, 106.2) · 9-370 (Jofra Archer, 109.3) · 10-387 (Brydon Carse, 112.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 8/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 9/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 15/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 15/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 15/0 |
| 8 | 13 | 28/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 33/0 |
| 10 | 2 | 35/0 |
| 11 | 0 | 35/0 |
| 12 | 1 | 36/0 |
| 13 | 3 | 39/0 |
| 14 | 5 | 44/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 44/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 45/2 |
| 17 | 9 | 54/2 |
| 18 | 1 | 55/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 58/2 |
| 20 | 7 | 65/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 68/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 73/2 |
| 23 | 8 | 81/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 82/2 |
| 25 | 1 | 83/2 |
| 26 | 4 | 87/2 |
| 27 | 1 | 88/2 |
| 28 | 1 | 89/2 |
| 29 | 0 | 89/2 |
| 30 | 0 | 89/2 |
| 31 | 0 | 89/2 |
| 32 | 1 | 90/2 |
| 33 | 1 | 91/2 |
| 34 | 4 | 95/2 |
| 35 | 3 | 98/2 |
| 36 | 3 | 101/2 |
| 37 | 8 | 109/2 |
| 38 | 1 | 110/2 |
| 39 | 2 | 112/2 |
| 40 | 3 | 115/2 |
| 41 | 1 | 116/2 |
| 42 | 4 | 120/2 |
| 43 | 6 | 126/2 |
| 44 | 4 | 130/2 |
| 45 | 6 | 136/2 |
| 46 | 6 | 142/2 |
| 47 | 7 | 149/2 |
| 48 | 2 | 151/2 |
| 49 | 2 | 153/2 |
| 50 | 2 | 155/3 |
| 51 | 5 | 160/3 |
| 52 | 7 | 167/3 |
| 53 | 3 | 170/3 |
| 54 | 2 | 172/3 |
| 55 | 0 | 172/4 |
| 56 | 1 | 173/4 |
| 57 | 3 | 176/4 |
| 58 | 9 | 185/4 |
| 59 | 3 | 188/4 |
| 60 | 4 | 192/4 |
| 61 | 1 | 193/4 |
| 62 | 3 | 196/4 |
| 63 | 0 | 196/4 |
| 64 | 4 | 200/4 |
| 65 | 2 | 202/4 |
| 66 | 1 | 203/4 |
| 67 | 4 | 207/4 |
| 68 | 6 | 213/4 |
| 69 | 2 | 215/4 |
| 70 | 1 | 216/4 |
| 71 | 3 | 219/4 |
| 72 | 6 | 225/4 |
| 73 | 1 | 226/4 |
| 74 | 0 | 226/4 |
| 75 | 2 | 228/4 |
| 76 | 6 | 234/4 |
| 77 | 2 | 236/4 |
| 78 | 1 | 237/4 |
| 79 | 3 | 240/4 |
| 80 | 2 | 242/4 |
| 81 | 3 | 245/4 |
| 82 | 3 | 248/4 |
| 83 | 3 | 251/4 |
| 84 | 4 | 255/4 |
| 85 | 1 | 256/4 |
| 86 | 5 | 261/5 |
| 87 | 10 | 271/5 |
| 88 | 0 | 271/7 |
| 89 | 3 | 274/7 |
| 90 | 8 | 282/7 |
| 91 | 9 | 291/7 |
| 92 | 6 | 297/7 |
| 93 | 5 | 302/7 |
| 94 | 5 | 307/7 |
| 95 | 4 | 311/7 |
| 96 | 1 | 312/7 |
| 97 | 2 | 314/7 |
| 98 | 2 | 316/7 |
| 99 | 2 | 318/7 |
| 100 | 6 | 324/7 |
| 101 | 10 | 334/7 |
| 102 | 3 | 337/7 |
| 103 | 3 | 340/7 |
| 104 | 5 | 345/7 |
| 105 | 8 | 353/7 |
| 106 | 1 | 354/7 |
| 107 | 5 | 359/8 |
| 108 | 10 | 369/8 |
| 109 | 0 | 369/8 |
| 110 | 1 | 370/9 |
| 111 | 12 | 382/9 |
| 112 | 0 | 382/9 |
| 113 | 5 | 387/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Nitish Kumar Reddy: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rishabh Pant: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Karun Nair: User:Vishu@2008 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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