South AfricaversusBangladesh

29 Oct 2024 · Test

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 273 runs

South Africa144.2 overs575/6d Bangladesh45.2 overs159/10 Bangladesh43.4 overs143/10 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

South Africa more likely to win

60%South Africa18%Draw22%Bangladesh

Why

On results in Tests so far, South Africa rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,572 vs 1,352 on our results rating)
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
In the last 10 Tests between these sides, South Africa won 8 and Bangladesh won 0 (2 drawn)

Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

South Africa575/6 Bangladesh159/10 Bangladesh143/10

Innings 1

South Africa

575/6d144.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Aiden Markramcaught · Mominul Haque · Taijul Islam 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mominul Haque · b Taijul Islam	33	55	2	0	60.00
Tony de Zorzilbw · Taijul Islam 12 fours · 4 sixes	lbw · b Taijul Islam	177	269	12	4	65.80
Tristan Stubbsbowled · Taijul Islam 6 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b Taijul Islam	106	198	6	3	53.54
David Bedinghambowled · Taijul Islam 2 fours · 4 sixes	bowled · b Taijul Islam	59	78	2	4	75.64

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Hasan Mahmud1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	23.0	1	83	0	3.61	0	0
Nahid Rana2 maidens · 1 wides · 3 no-balls	24.0	2	83	1	3.46	1	3
Taijul Islam5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	52.2	5	198	5	3.78	0	0
Mehedi Hasan2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	39.0	2	171	0	4.38	0	0
Mominul Haque0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	15	0	3.75	0	0
Mahmudul Hasan Joy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	14	0	7.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	4	9/0
3	5	14/0
4	9	23/0
5	1	24/0
6	1	25/0
7	2	27/0
8	10	37/0
9	4	41/0
10	3	44/0
11	7	51/0
12	2	53/0
13	2	55/0
14	5	60/0
15	3	63/0
16	2	65/0
17	4	69/0
18	0	69/1
19	3	72/1
20	5	77/1
21	5	82/1
22	4	86/1
23	2	88/1
24	1	89/1
25	5	94/1
26	6	100/1
27	5	105/1
28	4	109/1
29	2	111/1
30	3	114/1
31	2	116/1
32	3	119/1
33	1	120/1
34	2	122/1
35	0	122/1
36	3	125/1
37	1	126/1
38	3	129/1
39	2	131/1
40	4	135/1
41	8	143/1
42	7	150/1
43	2	152/1
44	0	152/1
45	6	158/1
46	2	160/1
47	5	165/1
48	1	166/1
49	9	175/1
50	1	176/1
51	7	183/1
52	8	191/1
53	4	195/1
54	3	198/1
55	5	203/1
56	2	205/1
57	3	208/1
58	7	215/1
59	3	218/1
60	2	220/1
61	2	222/1
62	10	232/1
63	1	233/1
64	2	235/1
65	2	237/1
66	2	239/1
67	2	241/1
68	2	243/1
69	6	249/1
70	5	254/1
71	5	259/1
72	1	260/1
73	5	265/1
74	5	270/2
75	4	274/2
76	9	283/2
77	0	283/2
78	9	292/2
79	5	297/2
80	7	304/2
81	3	307/2
82	2	309/2
83	2	311/2
84	0	311/2
85	1	312/2
86	5	317/2
87	4	321/2
88	11	332/2
89	1	333/2
90	9	342/2
91	7	349/2
92	3	352/2
93	6	358/2
94	4	362/2
95	3	365/2
96	1	366/2
97	1	367/2
98	13	380/2
99	6	386/3
100	3	389/3
101	2	391/4
102	0	391/4
103	0	391/5
104	8	399/5
105	0	399/5
106	5	404/5
107	1	405/5
108	1	406/5
109	2	408/5
110	5	413/5
111	5	418/5
112	4	422/5
113	1	423/5
114	3	426/6
115	4	430/6
116	8	438/6
117	3	441/6
118	2	443/6
119	3	446/6
120	3	449/6
121	8	457/6
122	7	464/6
123	3	467/6
124	2	469/6
125	1	470/6
126	13	483/6
127	5	488/6
128	1	489/6
129	7	496/6
130	13	509/6
131	7	516/6
132	1	517/6
133	2	519/6
134	6	525/6
135	2	527/6
136	0	527/6
137	5	532/6
138	2	534/6
139	3	537/6
140	8	545/6
141	6	551/6
142	2	553/6
143	4	557/6
144	12	569/6
145	6	575/6

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South AfricaversusBangladesh

South Africa won by 273 runs

Win chances before this match

Why

South Africa

Fall of wickets