**Newlands, Cape Town**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
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Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

MI Cape TownversusPaarl Royals

13 Jan 2025 · T20

Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photograph

Recorded result

MI Cape Town won by 33 runs

MI Cape Town20.0 overs172/7 Paarl Royals20.0 overs139/9 Newlands, Cape Town ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

MI Cape Town started on 46%; MI Cape Town batted first.

MI Cape Town’s chance of winning (%) · Paarl Royals is the rest

MI Cape Town's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Paarl Royals: 0% to 72%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.2: K Rabada to LG Pretorius, LG Pretorius out. MI Cape Town up from 34% to 47%.
2nd inns 6.6: GF Linde to M Van Buuren, M Van Buuren out. MI Cape Town up from 47% to 63%.
2nd inns 8.3: GF Linde to DA Miller, DA Miller out. MI Cape Town up from 66% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.