WellingtonversusCanterbury

23 Jan 2026 · T20

Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Wellington won by 6 runs

Wellington20.0 overs130/9 Canterbury20.0 overs124/7 Hagley Oval, Christchurch ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Wellington started on 65%; Wellington batted first.

Wellington’s chance of winning (%) · Canterbury is the rest

Wellington's chances ranged from 21% to 94% during the match (Canterbury: 6% to 80%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.2: JM Kerr to NE Stalenberg, NE Stalenberg out. Wellington up from 45% to 57%.
2nd inns 15.2: N Baird to J Dean, J Dean out. Wellington up from 33% to 50%.
2nd inns 16.1: HC Francis to LMM Tahuhu, LMM Tahuhu out. Wellington up from 49% to 68%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.