Super Smash · 2024/25 · Men

OtagoversusCanterbury

27 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Otago won by 10 runs

Otago20.0 overs165/9 Canterbury20.0 overs155/10 Molyneux Park, Alexandra ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Otago started on 38%; Otago batted first.

Otago’s chance of winning (%) · Canterbury is the rest

Otago's chances ranged from 22% to 99% during the match (Canterbury: 1% to 78%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 13.5: BNJ Lockrose to CE McConchie, CE McConchie out. Otago up from 36% to 53%.
2nd inns 14.4: D Foxcroft to MJG Rippon, MJG Rippon out. Otago up from 58% to 79%.
2nd inns 18.1: JM Gibson to IS Sodhi, six by IS Sodhi. Canterbury up from 16% to 33%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Canterbury chose to field
match referees: SB O'Connor
reserve umpires: JT Blunt
tv umpires: KS Jagannathan
umpires: JM Dempsey, N Louw

Match history & source

On 27 Dec 2024, Otago played Canterbury at Molyneux Park, Alexandra. Recorded result: Otago won by 10 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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