Rajasthan RoyalsversusLucknow Super Giants

22 Apr 2026 · T20

Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rajasthan Royals won by 40 runs

Rajasthan Royals20.0 overs159/6 Lucknow Super Giants18.0 overs119/10 Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rajasthan Royals started on 47%; Rajasthan Royals batted first.

Rajasthan Royals’s chance of winning (%) · Lucknow Super Giants is the rest

Rajasthan Royals's chances ranged from 17% to 100% during the match (Lucknow Super Giants: 0% to 84%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.5: JC Archer to AK Markram, AK Markram out. Rajasthan Royals up from 52% to 68%.
2nd inns 9.4: RA Jadeja to N Pooran, N Pooran out. Rajasthan Royals up from 58% to 75%.
2nd inns 15.3: N Burger to MR Marsh, MR Marsh out. Rajasthan Royals up from 67% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rajasthan Royals159/6 Lucknow Super Giants119/10

Innings 1