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South Africa tour of India · 2025/26 · Men
3 Dec 2025 · ODI
Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Stadium, Raipur · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 77%; India batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Yashasvi Jaiswalcaught · Corbin Bosch · Marco Jansen2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Corbin Bosch · b Marco Jansen | 22 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 57.89 |
 Rohit Sharmacaught · Quinton de Kock · Nandre Burger3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Quinton de Kock · b Nandre Burger | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 175.00 |
 Virat Kohlicaught · Aiden Markram · Lungi Ngidi7 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Lungi Ngidi | 102 | 93 | 7 | 2 | 109.68 |
| Ruturaj Gaikwadcaught · Tony de Zorzi · Marco Jansen 12 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Tony de Zorzi · b Marco Jansen |
India's chances ranged from 4% to 97% during the match (South Africa: 3% to 96%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 105 |
| 83 |
| 12 |
| 2 |
| 126.51 |
 KL Rahulnot out6 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 66* | 43 | 6 | 2 | 153.49 |
|---|
 Washington Sundarrun out · Quinton de Kock, Corbin Bosch · Aiden Markram0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Quinton de Kock, Corbin Bosch | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
|---|
 Ravindra Jadejanot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 24* | 27 | 2 | 0 | 88.89 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 20 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nandre Burger0 maidens · 9 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.1 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 6.97 | 9 | 0 |
 Lungi Ngidi1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 51 | 1 | 5.10 | 5 | 0 |
 Marco Jansen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 63 | 2 | 6.30 | 0 | 0 |
 Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 70 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 79 | 0 | 9.88 | 1 | 0 |
 Aiden Markram0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.5 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 8.23 | 5 | 0 |
1-40 (Rohit Sharma, 4.5) · 2-62 (Yashasvi Jaiswal, 9.4) · 3-257 (Ruturaj Gaikwad, 35.4) · 4-284 (Virat Kohli, 39.1) · 5-289 (Washington Sundar, 41.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 14/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 22/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 24/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 28/0 |
| 5 | 12 | 40/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 47/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 53/1 |
| 8 | 6 | 59/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 61/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 66/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 74/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 77/2 |
| 13 | 7 | 84/2 |
| 14 | 8 | 92/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 96/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 101/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 104/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 108/2 |
| 19 | 5 | 113/2 |
| 20 | 8 | 121/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 123/2 |
| 22 | 14 | 137/2 |
| 23 | 6 | 143/2 |
| 24 | 11 | 154/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 158/2 |
| 26 | 10 | 168/2 |
| 27 | 9 | 177/2 |
| 28 | 16 | 193/2 |
| 29 | 5 | 198/2 |
| 30 | 9 | 207/2 |
| 31 | 5 | 212/2 |
| 32 | 9 | 221/2 |
| 33 | 13 | 234/2 |
| 34 | 15 | 249/2 |
| 35 | 6 | 255/2 |
| 36 | 2 | 257/3 |
| 37 | 9 | 266/3 |
| 38 | 9 | 275/3 |
| 39 | 9 | 284/3 |
| 40 | 0 | 284/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 289/5 |
| 42 | 6 | 295/5 |
| 43 | 2 | 297/5 |
| 44 | 12 | 309/5 |
| 45 | 8 | 317/5 |
| 46 | 5 | 322/5 |
| 47 | 5 | 327/5 |
| 48 | 9 | 336/5 |
| 49 | 4 | 340/5 |
| 50 | 18 | 358/5 |
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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