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South Africa tour of India · 2025/26 · Men
3 Dec 2025 · ODI
Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Stadium, Raipur · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 77%; India batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aiden Markramcaught · Ruturaj Gaikwad · Harshit Rana10 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Ruturaj Gaikwad · b Harshit Rana | 110 | 98 | 10 | 4 | 112.24 |
 Quinton de Kockcaught · Washington Sundar · Arshdeep Singh2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Washington Sundar · b Arshdeep Singh | 8 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 72.73 |
 Temba Bavumacaught · Harshit Rana · Prasidh Krishna3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Harshit Rana · b Prasidh Krishna | 46 | 48 | 3 | 1 | 95.83 |
| Matthew Breetzkelbw · Prasidh Krishna 5 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Prasidh Krishna |
India's chances ranged from 4% to 97% during the match (South Africa: 3% to 96%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 68 |
| 64 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 106.25 |
| Dewald Breviscaught · Yashasvi Jaiswal · Kuldeep Yadav 1 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Yashasvi Jaiswal · b Kuldeep Yadav | 54 | 34 | 1 | 5 | 158.82 |
|---|
| Tony de Zorziretired hurt · Arshdeep Singh 0 fours · 1 sixes | retired hurt | 17* | 11 | 0 | 1 | 154.55 |
|---|
 Marco Jansencaught · Ruturaj Gaikwad · Arshdeep Singh0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ruturaj Gaikwad · b Arshdeep Singh | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Corbin Boschnot out 4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 29* | 15 | 4 | 0 | 193.33 |
|---|
 Keshav Maharajnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 14 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 11 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 2 | 5.40 | 2 | 0 |
| Harshit Rana0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 70 | 1 | 7.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Prasidh Krishna0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.2 | 0 | 85 | 2 | 10.20 | 2 | 1 |
 Washington Sundar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Ravindra Jadeja0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 5.86 | 0 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 78 | 1 | 7.80 | 2 | 0 |
1-26 (Quinton de Kock, 4.5) · 2-127 (Temba Bavuma, 20.5) · 3-197 (Aiden Markram, 30.0) · 4-289 (Dewald Brevis, 40.3) · 5-317 (Matthew Breetzke, 43.5) · 6-322 (Marco Jansen, 44.3)
Recorded target: 359 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 22/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 25/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 26/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 32/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 35/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 38/1 |
| 9 | 11 | 49/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 51/1 |
| 11 | 5 | 56/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 62/1 |
| 13 | 7 | 69/1 |
| 14 | 10 | 79/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 83/1 |
| 16 | 9 | 92/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 97/1 |
| 18 | 10 | 107/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 112/1 |
| 20 | 6 | 118/1 |
| 21 | 10 | 128/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 133/2 |
| 23 | 9 | 142/2 |
| 24 | 4 | 146/2 |
| 25 | 7 | 153/2 |
| 26 | 11 | 164/2 |
| 27 | 13 | 177/2 |
| 28 | 5 | 182/2 |
| 29 | 8 | 190/2 |
| 30 | 7 | 197/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 199/3 |
| 32 | 2 | 201/3 |
| 33 | 10 | 211/3 |
| 34 | 3 | 214/3 |
| 35 | 12 | 226/3 |
| 36 | 11 | 237/3 |
| 37 | 16 | 253/3 |
| 38 | 6 | 259/3 |
| 39 | 7 | 266/3 |
| 40 | 16 | 282/3 |
| 41 | 10 | 292/4 |
| 42 | 7 | 299/4 |
| 43 | 12 | 311/4 |
| 44 | 8 | 319/5 |
| 45 | 13 | 332/6 |
| 46 | 9 | 341/6 |
| 47 | 3 | 344/6 |
| 48 | 7 | 351/6 |
| 49 | 5 | 356/6 |
| 50 | 6 | 362/6 |
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Yashasvi Jaiswal: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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