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Photo: VishuN
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; display framing may vary.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
South Africa tour of India · 2025/26 · Men
3 Dec 2025 · ODI
Shaheed Veer Narayan Singh International Stadium, Raipur · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 77%; India batted first.
Photo: Prime Minister's Office
Original photograph ↗ · GODL-India
Resized and converted to WebP. Historical photograph; display crops vary. No endorsement by the photographer or provider is implied.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Recorded in this match's lineup
Photo: Bahnfrend
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP. Portrait framing varies by display; photograph is historical.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Recorded in this match's lineup
India's chances ranged from 4% to 97% during the match (South Africa: 3% to 96%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
