Birmingham BearsversusDerbyshire

8 Jun 2025 · T20

Edgbaston · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Birmingham Bears won by 58 runs

Birmingham Bears20.0 overs199/6 Derbyshire17.1 overs141/10 Edgbaston ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Birmingham Bears started on 62%; Birmingham Bears batted first.

Birmingham Bears’s chance of winning (%) · Derbyshire is the rest

Birmingham Bears's chances ranged from 61% to 100% during the match (Derbyshire: 0% to 39%).

Biggest swings

8.6: PR Brown to AL Davies, AL Davies out. Derbyshire up from 18% to 24%.
11.5: AM Ghazanfar to TWM Latham, four by TWM Latham. Birmingham Bears up from 78% to 85%.
2nd inns 0.5: GHS Garton to CP Jewell, CP Jewell out. Birmingham Bears up from 82% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Birmingham Bears199/6 Derbyshire141/10

Innings 1