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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Bangladesh tour of Sri Lanka · 2025 · Men
2 Jul 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 75%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Kusal Mendis · Asitha Fernando 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Asitha Fernando | 13 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 81.25 |
| Tanzid Hasancaught · Janith Liyanage · Wanindu Hasaranga 9 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Janith Liyanage · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 62 | 61 | 9 | 1 | 101.64 |
 Najmul Hossain Shantorun out · Kusal Mendis, Milan Priyanath · Mahesh Theekshana2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kusal Mendis, Milan Priyanath | 23 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 88.46 |
 Litton Daslbw · Wanindu Hasaranga0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 50% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 50%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Tawhid Hridoybowled · Kamindu Mendis0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| bowled · b Kamindu Mendis |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 25.00 |
 Mehedi Hasanlbw · Wanindu Hasaranga0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Jaker Alilbw · Wanindu Hasaranga4 fours · 4 sixes | lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 51 | 64 | 4 | 4 | 79.69 |
|---|
 Tanzim Hasan Sakibcaught · Mahesh Theekshana · Kamindu Mendis0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mahesh Theekshana · b Kamindu Mendis | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
 Taskin Ahmedlbw · Kamindu Mendis0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kamindu Mendis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Tanvir Islamcaught · Kusal Mendis · Mahesh Theekshana 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Mahesh Theekshana | 5 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 26.32 |
|---|
 Mustafizur Rahmannot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 7.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana1 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 32 | 1 | 3.56 | 0 | 2 |
| Milan Priyanath0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 5.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.5 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 1.28 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 3.80 | 2 | 0 |
1-29 (Parvez Hossain Emon, 4.4) · 2-100 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 16.3) · 3-101 (Litton Das, 17.2) · 4-102 (Tanzid Hasan, 17.5) · 5-103 (Tawhid Hridoy, 18.3) · 6-103 (Mehedi Hasan, 19.1) · 7-104 (Tanzim Hasan Sakib, 20.2) · 8-105 (Taskin Ahmed, 20.5) · 9-125 (Tanvir Islam, 28.4) · 10-167 (Jaker Ali, 35.5)
Recorded target: 245 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 25/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 29/1 |
| 6 | 10 | 39/1 |
| 7 | 10 | 49/1 |
| 8 | 0 | 49/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 58/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 61/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 64/1 |
| 12 | 9 | 73/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 77/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 81/1 |
| 15 | 6 | 87/1 |
| 16 | 9 | 96/1 |
| 17 | 4 | 100/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 102/4 |
| 19 | 1 | 103/5 |
| 20 | 1 | 104/6 |
| 21 | 1 | 105/8 |
| 22 | 1 | 106/8 |
| 23 | 5 | 111/8 |
| 24 | 1 | 112/8 |
| 25 | 7 | 119/8 |
| 26 | 0 | 119/8 |
| 27 | 5 | 124/8 |
| 28 | 0 | 124/8 |
| 29 | 1 | 125/9 |
| 30 | 7 | 132/9 |
| 31 | 7 | 139/9 |
| 32 | 11 | 150/9 |
| 33 | 1 | 151/9 |
| 34 | 5 | 156/9 |
| 35 | 11 | 167/9 |
| 36 | 0 | 167/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tanzim Hasan Sakib: Cricket Today · CC BY 3.0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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