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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Bangladesh tour of Sri Lanka · 2025 · Men
2 Jul 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 75%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankacaught · Litton Das · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Litton Das · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Nishan Madushkabowled · Taskin Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Taskin Ahmed | 6 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 46.15 |
| Kusal Mendislbw · Tanvir Islam 6 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Tanvir Islam | 45 | 43 | 6 | 1 | 104.65 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Mehedi Hasan · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mehedi Hasan · b Taskin Ahmed | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 6 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib | 106 | 123 | 6 | 4 | 86.18 |
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 50% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 50%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Janith Liyanagecaught · Tanzim Hasan Sakib · Najmul Hossain Shanto4 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Tanzim Hasan Sakib · b Najmul Hossain Shanto |
| 29 |
| 40 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 72.50 |
| Milan Priyanathbowled · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib | 22 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 70.97 |
|---|
 Wanindu Hasarangacaught · Shamim Hossain · Taskin Ahmed3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shamim Hossain · b Taskin Ahmed | 22 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshanacaught · Jaker Ali · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jaker Ali · b Taskin Ahmed | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Eshan Malingarun out · Tawhid Hridoy · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Tawhid Hridoy | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Taskin Ahmed2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 47 | 4 | 4.70 | 0 | 0 |
 Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.2 | 0 | 45 | 3 | 4.82 | 0 | 0 |
 Mustafizur Rahman1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Mehedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 4.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanvir Islam0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 4.40 | 1 | 0 |
 Najmul Hossain Shanto0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 1 |
1-5 (Pathum Nissanka, 3.1) · 2-11 (Nishan Madushka, 4.3) · 3-29 (Kamindu Mendis, 6.1) · 4-89 (Kusal Mendis, 19.0) · 5-153 (Janith Liyanage, 31.4) · 6-192 (Milan Priyanath, 39.3) · 7-226 (Wanindu Hasaranga, 45.1) · 8-228 (Mahesh Theekshana, 45.4) · 9-243 (Charith Asalanka, 49.1) · 10-244 (Eshan Malinga, 49.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 9/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 15/2 |
| 6 | 14 | 29/2 |
| 7 | 0 | 29/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 34/3 |
| 9 | 8 | 42/3 |
| 10 | 8 | 50/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 54/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 56/3 |
| 13 | 0 | 56/3 |
| 14 | 7 | 63/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 69/3 |
| 16 | 8 | 77/3 |
| 17 | 3 | 80/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 84/3 |
| 19 | 5 | 89/4 |
| 20 | 5 | 94/4 |
| 21 | 3 | 97/4 |
| 22 | 6 | 103/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 105/4 |
| 24 | 7 | 112/4 |
| 25 | 7 | 119/4 |
| 26 | 7 | 126/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 130/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 134/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 138/4 |
| 30 | 6 | 144/4 |
| 31 | 5 | 149/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 154/5 |
| 33 | 2 | 156/5 |
| 34 | 13 | 169/5 |
| 35 | 1 | 170/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 172/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 175/5 |
| 38 | 5 | 180/5 |
| 39 | 8 | 188/5 |
| 40 | 4 | 192/6 |
| 41 | 2 | 194/6 |
| 42 | 12 | 206/6 |
| 43 | 7 | 213/6 |
| 44 | 10 | 223/6 |
| 45 | 3 | 226/6 |
| 46 | 2 | 228/8 |
| 47 | 4 | 232/8 |
| 48 | 6 | 238/8 |
| 49 | 5 | 243/8 |
| 50 | 1 | 244/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tanzim Hasan Sakib: Cricket Today · CC BY 3.0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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