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Jersey tour of Guernsey · 2024 · Men
22 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Guernsey started on 49%; Guernsey batted first.
Guernsey's chances ranged from 0% to 54% during the match (Jersey: 46% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Fitchetbowled · Julius Sumerauer 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Julius Sumerauer | 12 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 109.09 |
| A Martelcaught · Charlie Brennan · Julius Sumerauer 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charlie Brennan · b Julius Sumerauer | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Tom Nightingalebowled · Benjamin Ward 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Benjamin Ward | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 54.55 |
| Matthew Stokescaught · Josh Lawrenson · Charles Perchard 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Lawrenson · b Charles Perchard | 38 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 118.75 |
| Isaac Damarellbowled · Charles Perchard 6 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Charles Perchard | 40 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 121.21 |
| not out |
| 28* |
| 14 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 200.00 |
| M Dale-Bradleycaught · Daniel Birrell · Charles Perchard 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daniel Birrell · b Charles Perchard | 13 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 130.00 |
|---|
| Ben Ferbrachenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 5 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Sumerauer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Birrell0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Benjamin Ward0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Perchard0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 3 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Greenwood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (Ben Fitchet, 2.2) · 2-25 (A Martel, 4.3) · 3-40 (Tom Nightingale, 6.3) · 4-105 (Matthew Stokes, 15.3) · 5-110 (Isaac Damarell, 16.0) · 6-155 (M Dale-Bradley, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 21/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 31/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 38/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 42/3 |
| 8 | 6 | 48/3 |
| 9 | 4 | 52/3 |
| 10 | 6 | 58/3 |
| 11 | 11 | 69/3 |
| 12 | 10 | 79/3 |
| 13 | 2 | 81/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 89/3 |
| 15 | 11 | 100/3 |
| 16 | 10 | 110/5 |
| 17 | 11 | 121/5 |
| 18 | 9 | 130/5 |
| 19 | 17 | 147/5 |
| 20 | 9 | 156/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.